全球储能电动革命分化——哪些电池制造商在电动汽车领域的布局最佳

Global Energy Storage

Neil Beveridge, Ph.D.

+852 2123 2648

neil.beveridge@bernsteinsg.com

Brian Ho, CFA

+852 2123 2615

brian.ho@bernsteinsg.com

Hengliang Zhang

+852 2123 2629

hengliang.zhang@bernsteinsg.com

Welcome to the 2025 edition of Bernstein’s Electric Revolution series - our annual crosssector look at the transformation of the EV landscape. This year’s theme is divergence: while China’s EV market pushes ahead with scale and innovation, the West is slowing, facing demand headwinds, policy uncertainty, and rising costs. The result? A bifurcated global EV industry, with distinct implications for OEMs, suppliers, energy players, and investors. In this note we review the relationships between OEM’s and battery makers and how this is likely to impact future sales.

CATL maintained its leading market share in 2024 at 36% (+0.5%-points), while that of LGES declined to 12% (-2.7%-points) and SDI was 4% (-1.3%-points). Although part of this is attributed to EV acceleration in China and deceleration in the west, Chinese battery cell makers are gaining market share in Europe. In China, the M/S of major battery cell makers was stable and CATL maintained 42% M/S. In Europe, CATL increased M/S to 39% (vs. 36% in 2023) gaining share from Volkswagen, Ford and Hyundai-Kia, at the expense of Korean companies. In the US, both LGES and SK On gained market share by 6%-points and 3%-points respectively, while CATL (Tesla) and SDI (Rivian) lost share.

CATL has the most diversified OEM customer base. Other battery makers have higher customer concentration risk, notably LGES and Tesla, SDI and BMW, SK On and Hyundai-Kia. For CATL, Tesla (16% exposure in 2024), Geely (12%), VW (11%) and BMW (6%) matter the most, but it also has a long tail of others. For LGES, Tesla (41%), VW (17%) and GM (15%) are the key customers. For SDI, BMW (43%), VW (20%) and Rivian (18%) matter the most, while SK On is highly dependent on Hyundai-Kia (49%) and Panasonic dependent on Tesla (98%).

China EV market is on track for another year of rapid growth, while ex-China Volkswagen and Hyundai-Kia which have guided to 50% EV sales growth. Leading Chinese OEMs like BYD and Geely are also expected to grow EV sales by 30-50% for FY2025. For US OEMs, the outlook is challenging with pure EV companies Tesla and Rivian giving more conservative guidance, while legacy OEMs such as Ford and GM still actively embracing the electrification. The consensus for Tesla EV sales growth this year is -3%. Among European OEMs, Volkswagen is the most positive with their target implying BEV growth of 20%-70% (45% at mid point). Hyundai Motor (which SK On is dependent on) also guided to increase its EV sales volume by 54%.

For 2025 SK On (+39%), BYD (+38%) and CATL (+23%) are expected to have the fastest battery demand growth. For CATL Volkswagen, Geely, Chery and Tesla will be vital for sales this year. Potential upside for demand is through share gain in western OEMs such as VW, but the risks lie in competition in China and OEM in-house battery supply such as Geely. For LGES, sales growth depends on Tesla and VW while there are downside risks from competition in Europe and Tesla’s sales slowdown. SDI is dependent on BMW and the 18% volume growth is contingent on an EV sales rebound of Stellantis and Volkswagen. Over the next 5 years, Korean companies could start to show better growth if the US market starts to grow and China reaches maturity.

BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE

<table><tr><td colspan="3"></td><td colspan="2">13 May 2025</td><td rowspan="2">TTM</td><td colspan="3">Reported EPS</td><td colspan="3">Reported P/E (x)</td></tr><tr><td></td><td></td><td>Closing</td><td>Price</td><td>Rel.</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Ticker</td><td>Rating</td><td></td><td>Price</td><td>Target</td><td>Perf.</td><td>2024A</td><td>2025E</td><td>2026E</td><td>2024A</td><td>2025E</td><td>2026E</td></tr><tr><td>300750.CH (CATL)</td><td>0</td><td>CNY</td><td>258.77</td><td>340.00</td><td>21.0%</td><td>CNY 11.52</td><td>14.88</td><td>18.19</td><td>22.5</td><td>17.4</td><td>14.2</td></tr><tr><td>373220.KS (LGES)</td><td>M</td><td>KRW</td><td>312,000</td><td>307,000</td><td>(27.7)%</td><td>KRW (4,353.59)</td><td></td><td>1,884.41 7,639.39</td><td>(71.7)</td><td>165.6</td><td>40.8</td></tr><tr><td>051910.KS (LG Chem)</td><td>0</td><td>KRW</td><td>203,000</td><td>310,000</td><td>(57.6)%</td><td>KRW (8,826.00)</td><td>11,113</td><td>34,678</td><td>(23.0)</td><td>18.3</td><td>5.9</td></tr><tr><td>006400.KS (SDI)</td><td>0</td><td>KRW</td><td>170,900</td><td>250,000</td><td>(69.2)%</td><td>KRW 8,916.68</td><td>7,675.86</td><td>20,795</td><td>19.2</td><td>22.3</td><td>8.2</td></tr><tr><td>247540.KS (EcoPro BM)</td><td>U</td><td>KRW</td><td>98,800</td><td>88,000</td><td>(62.5)%</td><td>KRW (991.00)</td><td>(80.00)</td><td>405.00</td><td>(99.7)</td><td>N/M</td><td>244.0</td></tr><tr><td>003670.KS (Posco Future M)</td><td>U</td><td>KRW</td><td>120,100</td><td>110,000</td><td>(66.0)%</td><td>KRW (2,740.96)</td><td></td><td>158.93 1,353.97</td><td>(43.8)</td><td>755.7</td><td>88.7</td></tr><tr><td>002466.CH (Tianqi Lithium)</td><td>0</td><td>CNY</td><td>29.81</td><td>47.00</td><td>(32.4)%</td><td>CNY</td><td>4.45 (4.73)</td><td>1.22</td><td>6.7</td><td>(6.3)</td><td>24.5</td></tr><tr><td>9696.HK (Tianqi Lithium)</td><td>0</td><td>HKD</td><td>24.05 1,364.30</td><td>34.00</td><td>(34.4)%</td><td>CNY</td><td>4.45 (4.73)</td><td>1.22</td><td>5.0</td><td>(4.7)</td><td>18.3</td></tr></table>

O - Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, NR - Not Rated, CS - Coverage Suspended 002466.CH, 9696.HK base year is 2023; Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.

INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS

The sales growth for battery makers in the short to medium term is largely dependent on which electric vehicles prove to be popular and which are not. For our covered companies, CATL boasts the most diversified customer base, whereas 2025 EV battery demand growth of LGES is heavily reliant on Volkswagen and Tesla. Samsung SDI sales growth will be dependent on a rebound in EV sales from European OEMs such as Stellantis and Volkswagen.

In 2024 CATL maintained its market share at 36%, while that of LGES declined to 12% (-2.7%-points) and SDI was 4% (-1.3%- points). We expect CATL to grow its EV battery sales by 25% y-o-y in 2025, followed by LGES (15%) and Samsung SDI (15%). For 2025 both CATL and LGES are projected to experience a 23% increase in EV battery demand, followed by Samsung SDI at 18%. The Chinese EV market is expected to continue its rapid growth, while outside of China, Volkswagen and Hyundai-Kia, both of which have guided a 50% increase in EV sales this year which will benefit battery makers exposed to these companies. This trend should positively impact CATL and SK On (not covered). Korean battery cell makers face risks related to potential market share loss, particularly with European OEMs like Volkswagen. Looking further ahead over the next 5 years, Korean companies could start to show better growth (20-25% CAGR) if the US market starts to grow and China reaches maturity, but much depends on whether tariffs will be able to keep Chinese battery makers out of the US and the Koreans can maintain current market share.

For now CATL (Outperform, CNY340) seems like the most investable stock the sector at a P/E of 15x (with 25-30% EPS growth) and announced plans for a HK IPO as a near term catalyst. We also rate Tianqi Outperform (HKD34 for H-share and CNY47 for A-share, Outperform) on a potential lithium price recovery in 2026. For Korean stocks, the near term could remain challenging. SDI and LG Chem (both on 10x forward P/E) offer better value than LGES with much of the downside priced in now. We rate Samsung SDI (KRW250,000), and LG Chem (KRW310,000) Outperform. We rate LGES Market-Perform with a price target of KRW307,000. We rate Posco Future M (KRW110,000) and EcoPro BM (KRW88,000) Underperform.

VALUATION COMPS TABLE

EXHIBIT 1: Global energy storage companies comparison <table><tr><td>Company</td><td>Price 13-May</td><td>Curcy</td><td>EV USD mn</td><td>Mkt cap USD mn</td><td>23A</td><td>P/E</td><td>24E</td><td>25E</td><td>22A</td><td>EV/Sales 23A</td><td>24E</td><td>25E</td><td>Sales Growth 23-24</td></tr><tr><td>LGES</td><td>312,000.0</td><td>KRW</td><td>65,668</td><td>51,235</td><td>73.0</td><td>44.3</td><td>-111.5</td><td>224.3</td><td>3.3</td><td>2.6</td><td>3.7</td><td>3.5</td><td>-31%</td></tr><tr><td>CATL</td><td>258.8</td><td>CNY</td><td>144,595</td><td>158,266</td><td>37.9</td><td>26.0</td><td>22.3</td><td>17.7</td><td>3.0</td><td>2.5</td><td>2.8</td><td>2.4</td><td>-10%</td></tr><tr><td>Samsung SDI</td><td>170,900.0</td><td>KRW</td><td>16,258</td><td>8,508</td><td>5.6</td><td>5.8</td><td>12.3</td><td>39.3</td><td>1.0</td><td>0.9</td><td>1.3</td><td>1.5</td><td>-30%</td></tr><tr><td>Panasonic</td><td>1,607</td><td>JPY</td><td>23,722</td><td>28,074</td><td>15.1</td><td>18.1</td><td>9.7</td><td>12.5</td><td>0.4</td><td>0.4</td><td>0.4</td><td>0.4</td><td>-11%</td></tr><tr><td>BYD</td><td>395.8</td><td>HKD</td><td>143,143</td><td>154,533</td><td>66.0</td><td>36.1</td><td>28.3</td><td>20.1</td><td>2.4</td><td>1.7</td><td>1.4</td><td>1.1</td><td>24%</td></tr><tr><td>SK Innovation</td><td>90,200</td><td>KRW</td><td>40,584</td><td>9,560</td><td>4.9</td><td>22.8</td><td>-10.1</td><td>-121.5</td><td>0.6</td><td>0.7</td><td>0.8</td><td>0.7</td><td>-12%</td></tr><tr><td>Gotion High Tech</td><td>23.9</td><td>CNY</td><td>11,575</td><td>5,989</td><td>120.9</td><td>64.7</td><td>51.0</td><td>32.6</td><td>3.5</td><td>2.8</td><td>2.3</td><td>1.9</td><td>21%</td></tr><tr><td>Farasis</td><td>13.3</td><td>CNY</td><td>2,382</td><td>2,261</td><td>-37.1</td><td>-8.9</td><td>-30.3</td><td>107.2</td><td>1.3</td><td>1.2</td><td>1.3</td><td>1.1</td><td>-11%</td></tr><tr><td>EVE</td><td>44.5</td><td>CNY</td><td>15,380</td><td>12,636</td><td>25.6</td><td>21.1</td><td>21.4</td><td>16.9</td><td>2.9</td><td>2.2</td><td>2.3</td><td>1.7</td><td>-1%</td></tr><tr><td>Sunwoda</td><td>20.0</td><td>CNY</td><td>7,923</td><td>5,127</td><td>31.1</td><td>33.4</td><td>22.3</td><td>16.8</td><td>1.1</td><td>1.1</td><td>1.0</td><td>0.9</td><td>8%</td></tr><tr><td>CALB</td><td>18.2</td><td>HKD</td><td>10,277</td><td>4,133</td><td>57.0</td><td>50.8</td><td>49.0</td><td>21.6</td><td>2.8</td><td>2.3</td><td>2.4</td><td>2.0</td><td>-4%</td></tr></table>

<table><tr><td>Company</td><td>LTM %</td><td>Rel LTM %</td><td>LTM High</td><td>LTM Low</td><td colspan="2">GPM (%) OPM (%) 23A 23A</td><td colspan="2">ND/E 22A</td><td></td><td colspan="2">EV/EBITDA</td><td></td><td>23E EV/Capacity (USD M/GWh)</td></tr><tr><td>LGES</td><td>-47%</td><td>-46%</td><td>411,000</td><td>202,000</td><td>17%</td><td>7%</td><td>20%</td><td>23A 40%</td><td>22A 25.2</td><td>23A 19.5</td><td>24E 27.4</td><td>25E 16.7</td><td>231</td></tr><tr><td>CATL</td><td>29%</td><td>18%</td><td>300</td><td>166</td><td>22%</td><td>13%</td><td>37%</td><td>-33%</td><td>22.7</td><td>15.4</td><td>12.3</td><td>10.5</td><td>336</td></tr><tr><td>Samsung SDI</td><td>-58%</td><td>-58%</td><td>434,691</td><td>166,436</td><td>18%</td><td>8%</td><td>6%</td><td>42%</td><td>6.0</td><td>6.2</td><td>8.8</td><td>9.6</td><td>259</td></tr><tr><td>Panasonic</td><td>33%</td><td>27%</td><td>1,919</td><td>987</td><td>26%</td><td>3%</td><td>21%</td><td>15%</td><td>4.6</td><td>5.0</td><td>4.5</td><td>4.1</td><td>409</td></tr><tr><td>BYD</td><td>89%</td><td>47%</td><td>427</td><td>203</td><td>19%</td><td>6%</td><td>-39%</td><td>-51%</td><td>26.1</td><td>15.8</td><td>10.2</td><td>8.0</td><td>421</td></tr><tr><td>SK Innovation</td><td>-15%</td><td>-15%</td><td>140,200</td><td>90,100</td><td>7%</td><td>3%</td><td>69%</td><td>78%</td><td>7.0</td><td>12.7</td><td>20.3</td><td>12.4</td><td>460</td></tr><tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Gotion High Tech Farasis</td><td>26% 6%</td><td>12% -2%</td><td>26.1 16.7</td><td>17.6 8.3</td><td>18% 4%</td><td>3% -12%</td><td>70% 12%</td><td>125% 54%</td><td>53.8 -177.7</td><td>32.7 -22.1</td><td>19.9 36.2</td><td>15.7 14.3</td><td>64 57</td></tr><tr><td>EVE</td><td>15%</td><td>6%</td><td>58.5</td><td>30.7</td><td>17%</td><td>10%</td><td>60%</td><td>38%</td><td>26.2</td><td>18.3</td><td>16.6</td><td>12.2</td><td>167</td></tr><tr><td>Sunwoda</td><td>32%</td><td>20%</td><td>26.4</td><td>13.5</td><td>14%</td><td>1%</td><td>52%</td><td>61%</td><td>19.6</td><td>20.0</td><td>14.5</td><td>10.9</td><td>152</td></tr><tr><td>CALB</td><td>21%</td><td>-2%</td><td>20.2</td><td>11.0</td><td>10%</td><td>4%</td><td>11%</td><td>67%</td><td>41.0</td><td>24.8</td><td>17.7</td><td>11.8</td><td>100</td></tr></table>

LGES, CATL, and Samsung SDI are covered by Neil Beveridge. BYD is covered by Eunice Lee. All other companies are not covered by Bernstein. Source: Bloomberg (consensus estimates), Bernstein analysis

DETAILS

In the long run, the sales performance of battery makers depends on the cost, quality and safety of batteries manufactured. In the short to medium term however, it depends on the EV sales by OEM. Battery makers which have their batteries incorporated into fast selling EV’s will grow quickly while those who are exposed to slower growing models will have less growth. In this report, we aim to highlight the potential for battery makers’ 2025 demand growth and market share by answering two questions, namely: 1) Which OEMs are expected to have the fastest-growing EV sales in 2025? 2) How to view the competition among battery companies for the supply share from OEMs?

The EV battery market in 2024 was characterized by a broad trend of Chinese battery cell makers gaining market share while Japanese and South Korean battery companies lost market share. CATL remains the leading battery maker globally with 36% market share (+0.5%-points) in 2024, followed by BYD on 18% (+1.5%-points) and LGES on 12% (-2.7%-points). Although this is largely attributed to the fact that China's EV sales outperformed those in the US and Europe (for example China EV batter demand in 2024 accounted for 57% of global EV battery demand, vs. 53% in 2023), Chinese battery cell makers are also gaining share in markets outside of China, such as in Europe.

Beyond the top 3 battery cell makers are Panasonic which continues to lose market share (from 6% in 2023 to 4% in 2024), Korean battery makers (SK On and SDI) and a long list of China battery makers with a market share in the low single digits, many of which have low levels of profitability. Chinese battery makers SVOLT and Gotion were the fastest growing in 2024. BYD grew slightly faster than CATL with 36% and 26% growth respectively (vs. 24% for total xEV battery demand growth). LGES and SDI both recorded growth of 1% and -11% which was below the industry growth rate. The latest update of Mar’25 seemed to confirm that the disparity of growth is continuing.

EXHIBIT 2: Passenger EV battery installation market share: CATL maintained leading market share <table><tr><td>Global</td><td>2019</td><td>2020</td><td>2021</td><td>2022</td><td>2023</td><td>2024</td><td>2025</td></tr><tr><td>CATL</td><td>22.9%</td><td>19.4%</td><td>30.5%</td><td>33.8%</td><td>35.4%</td><td>35.9%</td><td>36.2%</td></tr><tr><td>BYD</td><td>8.5%</td><td>6.0%</td><td>8.8%</td><td>14.9%</td><td>16.7%</td><td>18.2%</td><td>17.7%</td></tr><tr><td>LGES</td><td>12.8%</td><td>26.8%</td><td>21.7%</td><td>15.2%</td><td>14.4%</td><td>11.7%</td><td>11.9%</td></tr><tr><td>SK On</td><td>2.2%</td><td>5.9%</td><td>5.8%</td><td>6.0%</td><td>4.8%</td><td>4.6%</td><td>5.1%</td></tr><tr><td>CALB</td><td>1.6%</td><td>2.7%</td><td>2.9%</td><td>3.6%</td><td>4.8%</td><td>4.5%</td><td>3.8%</td></tr><tr><td>SDI</td><td>4.5%</td><td>6.8%</td><td>5.1%</td><td>5.1%</td><td>4.9%</td><td>3.5%</td><td>3.6%</td></tr><tr><td>Panasonic</td><td>30.5%</td><td>21.2%</td><td>12.8%</td><td>7.6%</td><td>6.4%</td><td>4.2%</td><td>3.6%</td></tr><tr><td>Gotion</td><td>1.8%</td><td>1.3%</td><td>1.9%</td><td>2.5%</td><td>2.0%</td><td>3.2%</td><td>3.3%</td></tr><tr><td>SVOLT</td><td>0.0%</td><td>0.5%</td><td>1.1%</td><td>1.3%</td><td>1.2%</td><td>2.2%</td><td>2.8%</td></tr><tr><td>EVE</td><td>0.1%</td><td>0.6%</td><td>0.9%</td><td>1.1%</td><td>2.1%</td><td>1.8%</td><td>1.8%</td></tr></table>

\* Only Lithium-based battery chemistries are included in this data set. xEVs captured in this data set includes BEV, PHEV, and HEV Source: SNE Research, Bernstein analysis

EXHIBIT 3: Passenger EV battery installation growth: Chinese battery makers gained the most <table><tr><td>Global YoY</td><td>2020</td><td>2021</td><td>2022</td><td>2023</td><td>2024</td><td>2025</td></tr><tr><td>SVOLT</td><td>n.a.</td><td>429%</td><td>104%</td><td>28%</td><td>124%</td><td>105%</td></tr><tr><td>Gotion</td><td>0%</td><td>214%</td><td>122%</td><td>15%</td><td>94%</td><td>83%</td></tr><tr><td>BYD</td><td>-5%</td><td>222%</td><td>185%</td><td>59%</td><td>36%</td><td>59%</td></tr><tr><td>SK On</td><td>258%</td><td>115%</td><td>74%</td><td>15%</td><td>17%</td><td>37%</td></tr><tr><td>CATL</td><td>13%</td><td>243%</td><td>88%</td><td>49%</td><td>26%</td><td>34%</td></tr><tr><td>EVE</td><td>1071%</td><td>256%</td><td>93%</td><td>186%</td><td>4%</td><td>31%</td></tr><tr><td>CALB</td><td>133%</td><td>130%</td><td>114%</td><td>89%</td><td>15%</td><td>23%</td></tr><tr><td>LGES</td><td>180%</td><td>76%</td><td>19%</td><td>34%</td><td>1%</td><td>16%</td></tr><tr><td>Panasonic</td><td>-7%</td><td>32%</td><td>1%</td><td>20%</td><td>-18%</td><td>-6%</td></tr><tr><td>SDI</td><td>99%</td><td>64%</td><td>70%</td><td>37%</td><td>-11%</td><td>-13%</td></tr></table>

\* Only Lithium-based battery chemistries are included in this data set. \* xEVs captured in this data set includes BEV, PHEV, and HEV Source: SNE Research, Bernstein analysis

Region % of Company

MARKET SHARE ACROSS REGIONS: CHINESE ARE WINNING IN EUROPE….

CATL maintained its market share at 36% in 2024 and 36% in 3M2025. CATL once guided to increase its market share by 1%- point every year, and over the past three years it seems to be largely on track as it increased its xEV battery market share from 34% in 2022 to 36% in 2024. Despite investors’ worries, CATL’s market share in China was maintained at 42% in 2024 (vs. 42% in 2023). In Europe, CATL's market share has been increasing for six consecutive years and reached 39% in 2024 and 44% in 3M2025. In the US the market share of CATL declined from 16% to 13% in 2024 as Tesla decided to stop selling the Model 3 Standard Range in North America in October, which was equipped with the CATL’s LFP batteries.

LGES’s market share declined from 14% in 2023 to 12% in 2024 and 12% in 3M2025. With the US capacity ramping up, LGES is taking more share in the US (26% vs. 20% in 2023). However, this was offset by the loss of market share in the Europe (27% vs. 37% in 2023). In Europe, wallet shares of LGES in key customers like Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, and Ford all declined by double digits. Samsung SDI’s market share declined from 5% in 2023 to 4% in 2024 and 4% in 3M2025. In 2024 Samsung SDI maintained its partnership with key customers like BMW and the supply share has stabilized. However, SDI’s wallet share in Rivian and Stellantis declined in 2024 with increasing competition from other firms.

EXHIBIT 4: EV battery market share for major battery makers. CATL's market share in Europe has been increasing for six consecutive years and reached 44% in 3M2025, exceeding its 42% market share in China

Source: SNE Research, Bernstein analysis

EXHIBIT 5: EV battery sales by battery maker and region <table><tr><td></td><td>China</td><td>Europe</td><td>us</td><td>Other</td><td>Global</td></tr><tr><td>CATL</td><td>197.9</td><td>64.7</td><td>17.2</td><td>15.3</td><td>295.1</td></tr><tr><td>LGES</td><td>7.6</td><td>45.5</td><td>33.5</td><td>7.6</td><td>94.2</td></tr><tr><td>SK On</td><td>0.1</td><td>15.5</td><td>17.7</td><td>4.0</td><td>37.3</td></tr><tr><td>SDI</td><td>0.0</td><td>14.2</td><td>12.8</td><td>2.1</td><td>29.1</td></tr><tr><td>BYD</td><td>135.6</td><td>4.7</td><td>0.0</td><td>9.7</td><td>149.9</td></tr><tr><td>Panasonic</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.4</td><td>33.9</td><td>0.6</td><td>34.9</td></tr><tr><td>CALB</td><td>30.8</td><td>4.5</td><td>0.4</td><td>1.3</td><td>37.0</td></tr><tr><td>EVE</td><td>11.8</td><td>1.6</td><td>0.0</td><td>1.3</td><td>14.6</td></tr><tr><td>Gotion</td><td>19.3</td><td>0.2</td><td>1.5</td><td>5.2</td><td>26.2</td></tr><tr><td>Sunwoda</td><td>15.7</td><td>1.6</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.4</td><td>17.7</td></tr><tr><td>Other</td><td>51.7</td><td>13.3</td><td>13.6</td><td>4.1</td><td>82.7</td></tr><tr><td>Grand Total</td><td>470.3</td><td>166.2</td><td>130.6</td><td>51.6</td><td>818.7</td></tr></table>

Source: SNE Research, Bernstein analysis

EXHIBIT 6: Battery maker M/S by region <table><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=3>ChinaEurope</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>us</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=2>OtherGlobal</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>CATL</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>42%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>39%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>13%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>30%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>36%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>LGES</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>2%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>27%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>26%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>15%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>12%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>SK On</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>0%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>9%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>14%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>8%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>5%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>SDI</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>0%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>9%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>10%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>4%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>4%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>BYD</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>29%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>3%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>0%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>19%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>18%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>Panasonic</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>0%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>0%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>26%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>1%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>4%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>CALB</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>7%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>3%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>0%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>3%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>5%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>EVE</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>3%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>1%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>0%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>2%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>2%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>Guoxuan</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>4%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>0%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>1%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>10%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>3%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>Sunwoda</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>3%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>1%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>0%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>1%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>2%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>Other</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>11%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>8%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>10%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>8%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>10%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=3>Grand Total 100% 100%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>100%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=2>100% 100%</td></tr></table>

Source: SNE Research, Bernstein analysis

EXHIBIT 7: Region % of company revenue <table><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=3>ChinaEurope</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>uS</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=2>OtherGlobal</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>CATL</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>67%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>22%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>6%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>5%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>100%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>LGES</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>8%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>48%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>36%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>8%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>100%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>SK On</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>0%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>42%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>47%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>11%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>100%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>SDI</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>0%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>49%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>44%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>7%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>100%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>BYD</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>90%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>3%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>0%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>6%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>100%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>Panasonic</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>0%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>1%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>97%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>2%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>100%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>CALB</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>83%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>12%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>1%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>4%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>100%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>EVE</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>81%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>11%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>0%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>9%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>100%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>Guoxuan</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>74%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>1%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>6%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>20%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>100%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>Sunwoda</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>89%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>9%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>0%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>2%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>100%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>Other</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>62%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>16%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>16%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>5%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>100%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>Grand Total</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>57%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>20%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>16%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>6%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>100%</td></tr></table>

Source: SNE Research, Bernstein analysis

In China, the market share of major battery cell makers was stable in 2024. The wallet share of CATL in some of Chinese OEMs declined but CATL maintained its 60% share in most key customers. Declines in the wallet share of OEMs such as Geely (from 70% to 54%) and SAIC (from 43% to 31%) were offset by other growing customers like Huawei AITO (+256% y-o-y and 100% supplied by CATL’s batteries), Chery (+531% y-o-y and 72% supplied by CATL) and Xiaomi (78% supplied by CATL) in 2024. In

2024, the external sales of BYD's batteries in China began to accelerate, as its sharesin the battery supply to XPeng, NIO and Xiaomi all increased.

EXHIBIT 8: In China CATL lost shares in battery supply to Geely, SAIC and Li Auto, which was offset by the demand growth from Huawei AITO and Chery <table><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=5>Battery installation y-o-yChina(2024, GWh)</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=5 colspan=1>BYDGeelyTESLASAICGACChangan</td><td rowspan=2 colspan=3>123.044.441.2</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>23%110%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>9%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=3>25.2</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>23%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=3>24.8</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-20%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=3>22.3</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>52%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>Li Auto</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=3>20.4</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>31%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>Chery</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=3>18.7</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>531%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>Huawei</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=3>16.7</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>256%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>FDG</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=3>16.4</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>97%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>NIO</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=3>16.4</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>33%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>Vw</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=3>13.2</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>2%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>Xiaomi</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=2>12.8</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>n.a.</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>Xiaopeng</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=2>12.7</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>17%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>Dongfeng</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=2>12.6</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>126%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>Great Wall</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=2>10.0</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>13%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>China FAW</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=2>7.9</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>33%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>BAIC</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=2>7.0</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>37%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>BMW</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=2>6.1</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-15%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>GM</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=2>3.5</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-43%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>Other OEMs</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=2>15.1</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-26%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>Total</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=3>470.3</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>34%</td></tr></table>

<table><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=9>Delta of wallet share of battery supplier, %CATL BYD LGES SDI SK On Panasonic Others</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>1</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=6></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-16%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-1%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=2></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=3></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>16%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>0%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>0%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=2></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=3></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-12%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=2></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=3></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>12%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>1%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=2></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=3></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-1%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-1%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-1%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=5></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>2%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-18%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>=</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=5></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>18%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>62%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>3%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=5></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-65%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>2%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>=</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=5></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-2%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-2%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=5></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>2%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>5%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>8%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=4></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-13%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>0%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>0%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>=</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-1%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>24%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=2></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-22%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-21%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-7%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-2%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=2></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=2></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>30%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-10%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>=</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=2></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=2></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>10%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>5%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-11%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=2></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=2></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>5%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>7%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=2>-6%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=2></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-1%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-12%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=2>=</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=2></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>12%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-16%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-4%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>0%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=2></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=2></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>20%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-7%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>12%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>0%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=2>0%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=2>0%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-5%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=9>0% -1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%</td></tr></table>

CATL, LGES, and SDI are covered by Neil Beveridge. BYD, Geely, SAIC, GAC, Li Auto, Great Wall, Xiaomi, Xiaopeng, and NIO are covered by Eunice Lee. VW and BMW are covered by Stephen Reitman. GM is covered by Daniel Roeska. All other companies are not covered by Bernstein. Source: SNE Research, Bernstein analysis

In Europe, CATL, BYD and other Chinese battery cell makers gained market share in 2024, at the expense of LGES (-10%- points) and Samsung SDI (-1%-points). CATL’s market share in Europe increased to 39% (+3%-points) in 2024. CATL gained wallet share in Volkswagen (from 27% to 45%), Hyundai-Kia (from 21% to 30%), Renault-Nissan (from 14% to 21%), and Ford (from 2% to 40%), but lost share in Geely Group (from 69% to 55%) and BMW (from 61% to 52%) in Europe. We believe Hungary Plant and Stellantis JV Plant will open more opportunities for CATL in Europe. For LGES and Samsung SDI, their partnership with Tesla and BMW respectively went well as the wallet shares were basically unchanged. However, LGES lost share in other OEMs such as Volkswagen (from 53% to 33%), Geely Group (from 30% to 11%), and Mercedes-Benz (from 11% to 2%).

EXHIBIT 9: In Europe CATL gained shares in most automakers, while LGES and SDI lost shares <table><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=7>Battery installation y-o-yEurope(2024, GWh)</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=8 colspan=1>VWTESLABMWGeelyStellantisMercedes-BenzHyundai KiaRenault-Nissan</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=5>37.2</td><td rowspan=2 colspan=1>26.316.5</td></tr><tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-11%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=4 colspan=5>14.814.313.9</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>18%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>42%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=3 colspan=3></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-8%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>15%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=3>11.0</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-8%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=5>8.9</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>7%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>SAIC</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=5>5.0</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-32%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>Ford</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=5>4.1</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>26%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>BYD</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=5>3.4</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>213%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>Toyota</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=5>3.2</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>45%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>Initiative</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=5>2.1</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>54%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>TATA</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=5>1.9</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>80%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>Xiaopeng</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=5>0.7</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>301%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>Honda</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=5>0.7</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>378%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>Other OEMs</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=5> 2.2</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-28%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>Total</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=5>166.2</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>6%</td></tr></table>

<table><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=7>Delta of wallet share of battery supplier, %CATL BYD LGES SDI SK On Panasonic Others</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>19%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-20%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-4%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>6%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>0%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>1%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>0%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>1%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>=</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-2%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>0%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-10%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>1%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>9%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-14%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-20%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>=</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>34%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>0%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>9%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-4%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-8%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>3%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-2%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-10%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>0%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>12%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>9%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-1%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-8%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>=</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>7%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>4%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>=</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-11%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>0%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>=</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>=</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>0%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>38%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-37%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-8%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>8%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-1%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>=</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=3 colspan=1>1%-</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>=</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=2 colspan=1></td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>0%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-17%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>17%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-2%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>2%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>23%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>1</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-23%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-13%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>2%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>1%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>0%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>0%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>3%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>8%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>3%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>2%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-10%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-1%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>1%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>0%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>6%</td></tr></table>

CATL, LGES, and SDI are covered by Neil Beveridge. BYD, Geely, SAIC, and Xiaopeng are covered by Eunice Lee. VW, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, and Renault are covered by Stephen Reitman. Stellantis and Ford are covered by Daniel Roeska. Nissan, Toyota and Honda are covered by Masahiro Akita. All other companies are not covered by Bernstein. Source: SNE Research, Bernstein analysis

In the US, both LGES and SK On gained market share, while Panasonic, CATL and SDI lost share. LGES increased its market share by 6%-points helped and SK On increased by 3%-points, largely down to success with Hyundai and Ford. In 2024 LGES increased share with Hinda and took about 7% of Tesla's battery supply share from CATL, although it lost some share of Hyundai Kia and Ford to SK On. In the US, the market share of CATL declined from 16% to 13% in 2024 as Tesla decided to stop selling the Model 3 Standard Range in North America in October, which was equipped with the CATL’s LFP batteries. SDI lost shares in Rivian to Chinese Gotion and Panasonic lost shares in Tesla to its in-house battery cells supply.

EXHIBIT 10: In the US, LGES gained shares in the battery supply to Tesla and SK On gained shares in Hyundai and Kia, as well as Ford <table><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=8>Ⅲ Battery installation y-o-yThe U.S.(2024, GWh)</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=4 colspan=3>TESLAGMHyundai KiaFord</td><td rowspan=2 colspan=4>51.714.4</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>0%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>99%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=2>12.9</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=2>2.9</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=2></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>52%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=4>12.4</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>57%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=3>Rivian</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=4>6.7</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>10%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=3 colspan=3>BMWVwToyota</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=4>5.6</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=2></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=4>5.5</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-16%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=4>3.6</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>52%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=3>Honda</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=4>3.6</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>n.a.</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=3>Mercedes-Benz</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=4>3.1</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-27%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=3>Renault-Nissan</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=4>2.9</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>49%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=3>Geely</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=4>2.3</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-16%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=3>Stellantis</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=4>2.2</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-9%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=3>SUBARU</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=4>1.1</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>33%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=3>LUCID</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=4>0.8</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>13%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=3>Other OEMs</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=4>2.1</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>125%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=3>Total</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=4>130.6</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>20%</td></tr></table>

Source: SNE Research, Bernstein analysis

<table><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=7>Delta of wallet share of battery supplier, %CATL BYD LGES SDI SK On Panasonic Others</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-8%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>7%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-15%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>15%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>1</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>=</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>=</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>4%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-14%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>10%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>=</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>7%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-22%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>0%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>15%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-1%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>=</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-22%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>22%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-5%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>5%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>1%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>10%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>1%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>2%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-13%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>=</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>1%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>=</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>=</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>=</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-1%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>100%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>=</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-100%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-20%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>0%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>8%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>12%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>1%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-1%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>25%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-39%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>14%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>9%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-1%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-8%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>1%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>=</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>=</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-1%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-49%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-51%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>100%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>27%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>3%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-23%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>0%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-8%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=5>-3% 6% -3% 3%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=2>-12% 8%</td></tr></table>

CATL, LGES, and SDI are covered by Neil Beveridge. BYD and Geely are covered by Eunice Lee. VW, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, and Renault are covered by Stephen Reitman. GM, Rivian, Stellantis and Ford are covered by Daniel Roeska. Nissan, Toyota, SUBARU and Honda are covered by Masahiro Akita. All other companies are not covered by Bernstein.

PARTNERSHIP WITH OEM’S

The global relationship between OEMs and battery makers continues to evolve over time. CATL continues to dominate the EV battery markets with the most diversified customer base across domestic OEMs (Exhibit 12) and global OEMs. Korean battery makers have important relationships with European OEMs (Green), while LGES and Panasonic are more reliant on the US OEMS (Blue). Notable relationships in the market are that between Tesla and Panasonic, although Tesla is now building its own capacity and also diversifying supplies with CATL (in China) and LGES (in Europe) also providing batteries. SK On has a strong relationship with Hyundai which has provided a strong EV product offering to the market. In the US, SK On has a partnership with Ford to expand capacity under the BlueOval SK JV, while LGES has a partnership with GM to produce battery under the Ultium Cells JV. BYD continues to be an exclusive provider of batteries to the BYD Group although it is looking to sell to other OEMs.

EXHIBIT 11: EV battery supply between battery cell makers and OEMs (in GWh, 2024)

Source: SNE Research, SankeyMATIC, Bernstein analysis

EXHIBIT 12: CATL has the most diversified customer base and other notable relationships in the market are that between LGES and Tesla (41% exposure), SDI and BMW (43%), SK On and Hyundai-Kia (49%), as well as Panasonic and Tesla (98%)

Source: SNE Research, Bernstein analysis

Unique relationships between OEMs and battery makers will drive differentiated growth depending on how successful their end customers are. For CATL, Tesla (16% exposure), Geely (12%), VW (11%) and BMW (6%) matter the most, but it also has a long tail of others. For LGES, Tesla (41%), VW (17%) and GM (15%) are the key customers. For SDI, BMW (43%), VW (20%) and Rivian (18%) matter the most, while SK On is highly dependent on Hyundai-Kia (49%) and Panasonic dependent on Tesla (98%).

EXHIBIT 13: Battery supplier exposure to OEMs <table><tr><td colspan="8">Battery supplier exposure to OEMs, 2024, %</td><td rowspan="2">Total</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>CATL</td><td>BYD</td><td>LGES</td><td>SDI</td><td>SK On</td><td>Panasonic</td><td>Others</td></tr><tr><td>BYD</td><td></td><td>90%</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>1</td><td>17%</td></tr><tr><td>Geely</td><td>12%</td><td></td><td>4%</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>15%</td><td>8%</td></tr><tr><td>SAIC</td><td>5%</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>10%</td><td>4%</td></tr><tr><td>GAC</td><td>2%</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>10%</td><td>3%</td></tr><tr><td>Changan</td><td>5%</td><td>0%</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>5%</td><td>3%</td></tr><tr><td>Li Auto</td><td>5%</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>3%</td><td>2%</td></tr><tr><td>Chery</td><td>5%</td><td>0%</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>3%</td><td>2%</td></tr><tr><td>Tesla</td><td>16%</td><td>=</td><td>41%</td><td>1</td><td></td><td>98%</td><td>4%</td><td>16%</td></tr><tr><td>GM</td><td>1%</td><td>0%</td><td>15%</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>0%</td><td>2%</td></tr><tr><td>Stellantis</td><td>4%</td><td>1%</td><td>1%</td><td>10%</td><td></td><td></td><td>0%</td><td>2%</td></tr><tr><td>Ford</td><td>1%</td><td>0%</td><td>7%</td><td>2%</td><td>18%</td><td></td><td>0%</td><td>2%</td></tr><tr><td>Rivian</td><td></td><td></td><td>–</td><td>18%</td><td></td><td></td><td>1%</td><td>1%</td></tr><tr><td>VW</td><td>11%</td><td></td><td>17%</td><td>20%</td><td>13%</td><td>0%</td><td></td><td>7%</td></tr><tr><td>BMW</td><td>6%</td><td></td><td></td><td>43%</td><td></td><td></td><td>1%</td><td>4%</td></tr><tr><td>Mercedes-Benz</td><td>2%</td><td></td><td>0%</td><td>1</td><td>19%</td><td>=</td><td>6%</td><td>3%</td></tr><tr><td>Renault-Nissan</td><td>1%</td><td>0%</td><td>5%</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>3%</td><td>2%</td></tr><tr><td>Hyundai-Kia</td><td>2%</td><td>0%</td><td>5%</td><td></td><td>49%</td><td></td><td></td><td>4%</td></tr><tr><td>Toyota</td><td>1%</td><td>2%</td><td>=</td><td></td><td></td><td>0%</td><td>4%</td><td>1%</td></tr><tr><td>Honda</td><td>0%</td><td>0%</td><td>4%</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>0%</td><td>1%</td></tr><tr><td>VINFAST</td><td>0%</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td></td><td>=</td><td>-</td><td>2%</td><td>0%</td></tr><tr><td>Other OEMs</td><td>22%</td><td>6%</td><td>1%</td><td>7%</td><td>0%</td><td>2%</td><td>33%</td><td>16%</td></tr><tr><td>Total</td><td>100%</td><td>100%</td><td>100%</td><td>100%</td><td>100%</td><td>100%</td><td>100%</td><td>100%</td></tr></table>

Source: SNE Research, Bernstein analysis

Looking at it the other way, for Tesla, CATL, Panasonic and LGES are the most important battery relationships. If Tesla were able to become vertically integrated in battery supply (which we doubt), this would clearly be a negative for these companies, with Panasonic the most exposed. For VW and Geely, CATL and LGES are the most important relationships, while for BMW, CATL and SDI matter the most.

EXHIBIT 14: Wallet share of battery makers. CATL is the largest battery supplier for most OEMs, while LGES is the largest for GM and Honda, and SDI is the largest for Rivian <table><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=8>Wallet share of battery supplier, 2024, %CATL BYD LGES SDI SK On Panasonic Others</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>Total</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=7 colspan=1>BYDGeelySAICGACChanganLi AutoChery</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>100%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=3></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>100%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>53%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>–</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>6%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>41%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>100%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>47%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>53%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>100%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>29%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>71%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>100%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>63%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>2%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>–</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>36%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>100%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>74%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>26%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>100%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>72%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>4%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>24%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>100%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=5 colspan=1>TeslaGMStellantisFordRivian</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>37%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>30%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>=</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>27%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>6%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>100%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>15%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>0%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>81%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>4%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>100%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>64%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>7%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>7%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>18%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>4%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>100%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>17%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>0%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>38%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>4%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>40%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>1%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>100%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>78%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>22%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>100%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=4 colspan=1>VWBMWMercedes-BenzRenault-Nissan</td><td rowspan=2 colspan=1>54%53%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>–</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>27%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>10%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>9%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>0%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>-</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>100%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>39%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>7%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>100%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>20%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>1%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>32%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>47%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>100%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>30%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>0%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>34%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>36%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>100%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=4 colspan=1>Hyundai-KiaToyotaHondaVINFAST</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>22%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>1%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>17%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1> -</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>60%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1> -</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1> -</td><td rowspan=2 colspan=1>100%100%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>16%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>26%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>0%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>58%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>25%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>1%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>71%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>3%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>100%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>20%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1></td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>1</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>80%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>100%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>Other OEMs</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>47%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>6%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>0%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>1%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>0%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>1%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>44%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>100%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>Total</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=3>36% 18% 12%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>4%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>5%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=2>4% 22%</td><td rowspan=1 colspan=1>100%</td></tr></table>

Source: SNE Research, Bernstein analysis

While most of the battery gigafactories are independently built and operated by battery cell makers, some are established in the form of joint ventures, which is more popular in the US given the generous AMPC credits. While Panasonic/Tesla dominates the US market today, the major Korean battery makers are expected to take significant market share given LGES's JVs with GM, Stellantis and Honda, SK On with Ford and Hyundai, and SDI with Stellantis and GM. Overall, battery manufacturers with greater JV exposure are likely in a better position to achieve higher sales given integration with OEMs.

Automakers that have chosen to aggressively expand their own battery cell production capacity include Tesla (128GWh by 2030), VW (166GWh), and Geely (136GWh). While this could be a negative for its battery suppliers like CATL, LGES and Panasonic, there are uncertainties regarding whether the expansion can proceed as scheduled or how much announced capacity will come online eventually.

EXHIBIT 15: 2030 JV related/OEM in-house battery production capacity <table><tr><td colspan="8">Battery maker capacity, GWh (JV related/in-house, 2030)</td><td rowspan="2">Total</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>CATL</td><td>BYD</td><td>LGES</td><td>SDI</td><td>SK On</td><td>Panasonic</td><td>Others/ In-house</td></tr><tr><td>BYD</td><td></td><td>728</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>728</td></tr><tr><td>Geely</td><td>27</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>136</td><td>163</td></tr><tr><td>SAIC</td><td>44</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>20</td><td>64</td></tr><tr><td>GAC</td><td>15</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>36</td><td>51</td></tr><tr><td>Changan</td><td>25</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>1</td><td>25</td></tr><tr><td>Li Auto</td><td>=</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Chery</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>22</td><td>22</td></tr><tr><td>Tesla</td><td>=</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>46</td><td>128</td><td>174</td></tr><tr><td>GM</td><td></td><td></td><td>131</td><td>36</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>167</td></tr><tr><td>Stellantis</td><td>50</td><td></td><td>45</td><td>67</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>162</td></tr><tr><td>Ford</td><td>20</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>129</td><td></td><td></td><td>149</td></tr><tr><td>Rivian</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>VW</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>166</td><td>166</td></tr><tr><td>BMW</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>10</td><td>10</td></tr><tr><td>Mercedes-Benz</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Renault-Nissan</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>61</td><td>61</td></tr><tr><td>Hyundai-Kia</td><td></td><td></td><td>30</td><td></td><td>35</td><td></td><td></td><td>65</td></tr><tr><td>Toyota</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>41</td><td>41</td></tr><tr><td>Honda</td><td></td><td></td><td>40</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>20</td><td>60</td></tr><tr><td>VINFAST</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Other OEMs</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>1</td><td>16</td><td></td><td>16</td></tr><tr><td>Total</td><td>181</td><td>728</td><td>246</td><td>103</td><td>164</td><td>62</td><td>640</td><td>2,124</td></tr></table>

Source: Company announcements, Bernstein analysis and estimates

WHICH OEM IS GROWING THE FASTEST?

In 2024 China xEV battery demand grew by 34% y-o-y, followed by the US (+20%) and Europe (+6%), and the battery demand growth of OEMs also shows the similar regional differences

BYD (136GWh in 2024, +28% y-o-y): The internal battery demand for BYD accounted for 90% of its total battery sales. Topselling models of BYD include Song DM (675K units, +33% y-o-y), Seagull (450K units, +63% y-o-y) and Yuan EV (268K units, -18% y-o-y).

Tesla (128GWh in 2024, +1% y-o-y): Tesla is the largest customer for CATL (16% exposure), LGES (41%) and Panasonic (98%). Globally Model Y sales volume decreased by 4% y-o-y to 1169K units, and Model 3 increased by 1% y-o-y to 535K units.

BMW (32GWh, +8% y-o-y): BMW is the largest customer for Samsung SDI (43% exposure). BMW has a wide range of EV products on sale with the top 3 models being i4 (73K units, -5% y-o-y), iX1 (56K units, +20% y-o-y) and i3 (48K units, -12% y o-y). The sales volume of BMW i5 (launched in 2023) was 41K units in 2024, +546% y-o-y.

Hyundai-Kia (30GWh, +10% y-o-y): Hyundai-Kia is the largest customer for SK On (49% exposure). About 60% of its EV sales are from 4 models, IONIQ 5 (102K units, +2% y-o-y), NIRO (74K units, -19% y-o-y), EV6 (66K units, -16% y-o-y) and Kona (63K units, +2% y-o-y).

Volkswagen (58GWh in 2024, +3% y-o-y): VW Group has a relatively diversified battery supply structure, with 54% from CATL, 27% from LGES, 10% from SDI and 9% from SK On. VW is the second largest battery supplier for LGES (17% exposure) and Samsung SDI (20% exposure), and the third largest for CATL (11%). In 2024 top-selling models of VW group include ID.3 (151K units, +2% y-o-y), Audi Q4 e-tron (106K units, +0% y-o-y) and ID.4 (92K units, -26% y-o-y).

For other OEMs, Geely grew its battery demand by 77% y-o-y in 2024 to 64GWh and the momentum seems to continue in 2025 as its total EV sales volume surpassed Tesla in Jan’25 and ranked the second to BYD. In our view CATL will be one of the beneficiaries as Geely is the second largest customer for CATL (12% exposure). Both GM (18GWh, +34% y-o-y) and Ford (17GWh, +47% y-o-y) delivered a decent battery demand growth which contributed to the sales growth of LGES (15% exposure to GM) and SK On (18% exposure to Ford), respectively.

EXHIBIT 16: The slowdown of western OEMs vehicle sales was a drag on battery shipments of LGES (Tesla), SDI (BMW) and Panasonic (Tesla)

Source: SNE Research, Bernstein analysis

EXHIBIT 17: Tesla and BYD monthly battery demand (GWh) and y-o-y growth. Tesla xEV battery demand +1% y-o-y to 128GWh and BYD +28% to 136GWh

Source: SNE Research, Bernstein analysis

EXHIBIT 18: EV start-ups monthly battery demand (GWh) and y-o-y growth. Li Auto xEV battery demand +29% y-oy to 20GWh and Rivian +10% to 7GWh. The battery demand of Xiaomi SU7, launched in 2024, reached 13GWh

Source: SNE Research, Bernstein analysis

EXHIBIT 19: Chinese legacy OEMs monthly battery demand (GWh) and y-o-y growth. Geely xEV battery demand increased by 77% to 64GWh, followed by SAIC (33GWh, +11%) and Changan (23GWh, +55%)

Source: SNE Research, Bernstein analysis

EXHIBIT 20: European legacy OEMs monthly battery demand (GWh) and y-o-y growth. Volkswagen xEV battery demand increased by 3% to 58GWh, followed by BMW (32GWh, +8%) and Mercedes-Benz (23GWh, -6%)

Source: SNE Research, Bernstein analysis

EXHIBIT 21: The US legacy OEMs monthly battery demand (GWh) and y-o-y growth. GM xEV battery demand increased by 34% to 18GWh, followed by Ford (17GWh, +47%) and Stellantis (17GWh, -9%)

Source: SNE Research, Bernstein analysis

EXHIBIT 22: Asian legacy OEMs monthly battery demand (GWh) and y-o-y growth. Hyundai xEV battery demand increased by 10% to 30GWh, followed by Toyota (11GWh, +44%) and Honda (5GWh, +232%)

Source: SNE Research, Bernstein analysis

2025 OUTLOOK: SK ON, BYD AND CATL TO LEAD THE GROWTH

For 2025 we expect another 30% total battery demand growth, as a function of robust China EV sales growth on strong orders book in 2H24 (+20%), recovery of Europe EV demand (+30%) driven by stricter CO2 emissions standard, although recently European Commission seeks to grant car manufacturers more time to meet EU CO2 emission standards. For the US EV sales, we expect a 10% y-o-y growth this year given the potential removal of Clean Vehicle Credits.

Chinese OEMs: The targets from OEMs area largely inline with our expectation. While Chinese OEMs do not have a guidance for the EV sales, China recorded a yearly increase of 35% for the first two months of the year. Leading Chinese OEMs like BYD and Geely are also expected to grow at a 35-40% level. The narrative should be a positive for Chinese battery makers like CATL and BYD.

US OEMs: For the US, 2025 outlook are divergent as pure EV companies like Tesla and Rivian are more conservative, while the legacy OEMs like Ford and GM are still actively embracing the electrification. Tesla expects the vehicle business to return to growth in 2025 and the Bloomberg consensus for its EV sales this year is 1.73MM units (-3% y-o-y). However, Tesla’s sales in the first two months of 2025 were notably weak as its new car registrations were lower y-o-y by around 20% ex-China and the retail sales in China also declined by 14% y-o-y despite >30% China EV growth. The slowdown of Tesla EV sales will be a negative for CATL (16% exposure to Tesla), LGES (41%) and Panasonic (98%).

European OEMs: For European OEMs, Volkswagen is the most aggressive one in terms of the EV adoption this year. In its 2024 earnings presentation, Volkswagen guided the BEV share to increase to 10-14% in 2025. Compared with 8.3% in 2024, this implies a y-o-y growth of 20%-70% (45% at mid point). CATL, LGES and Samsung SDI all have meaningful shares of battery supply to VW and should be beneficiaries. On the other hand, the guidance from BMW and Mercedes-Benz are less optimistic.

BMW expects the share of all-electric vehicles in deliveries will increase slightly in 2025 compared to 2024. However, its first NEUE KLASSE vehicle, the BMW iX3, will debut in September 2025, spearheading over 40 new models by 2027. This means near-term risks for the growth potential of Samsung SDI which has 43% battery sales from BMW.

Japanese and South Korean OEMs: Hyundai Motor guided to increase its EV sales volume by 54% y-o-y to 336K units in 2025, and SK On will be the major beneficiary of this as it has around half of battery sales from Hyundai-Kia group. SK On also guided to double-digit sales growth in 2025 which would be driven by North America. For Toyota, it has expected its BEV +PHEV sales volume to increase by 70% y-o-y to 519K units in FY2026 (12 months ended Mar'26).

EXHIBIT 23: What major OEMs target for EV sales in 2025 and the implications for battery demand <table><tr><td rowspan="2">Auto Group</td><td>Battery Suppliers and Exposure to OEM (%)*</td><td rowspan="2">2024 EV Sales (SNE) Panas K units</td><td rowspan="2">y-o-y</td><td rowspan="2">2025 Outlook</td></tr><tr><td>CATL BYD LGES SK On SDI onic</td></tr><tr><td>BYD</td><td>90%</td><td>4,131</td><td>43%</td><td>It is expected by Bernstein Asia Auto Team that the total EV sales of BYD will increase by 34% y-o-y in 2025 to reach 5.69MM units.</td></tr><tr><td>Geely</td><td>12%</td><td>1,318</td><td>63%</td><td>It is expected by Bernstein Asia Auto Team that the total EV sales of Geely (Geely, Geometry, Zeekr, Lynk, Galaxy and Livan) will increase by 41% y-o-y in 2025 to reach 1.25MM units. Tesla 2024 earnings presentation: "With the advancements in vehicle autonomy and the</td></tr><tr><td>Tesla</td><td>16% 41% 98%</td><td>1,789</td><td>-1%</td><td>introduction of new products, we expect the vehicle business to return to growth in 2025. The rate of growth will depend on a variety of factors, including the rate of acceleration of our autonomy efforts, production ramp at our factories and the broader macroeconomic environment." Bloomberg estimates for number of vehicles sold range between 1.70MM units to 2.10MM units, and the consensus based on 28 estimations is 1.73MM untis (-3% y-o-y).</td></tr><tr><td>Stellantis</td><td></td><td>473</td><td>-17%</td><td>For 2025, Stellantis has not publicly disclosed a specific EV sales target for the US or globally. However, they plan to expand their EV lineup with models like the Dodge Charger EV and Jeep Wagoneer S, which should boost sales. Their Dare Forward 2030 plan aims for global BEV sales of 5MM units by 2030, with 100% BEV sales in Europe and 50% in the US by that year.</td></tr><tr><td>Ford</td><td>18%</td><td>234</td><td>30%</td><td>Ford 2024 earnings call: "We expect a loss of $5 bi l l i o n t o$ 5.5 billion for Ford Model e, holding losses stable year-over-year. While continued industry pricing pressure remains, we plan to materially increase our global volume driven by the full-year impact of European launches and we significantly increased investment in our battery facilities and next-generation products, which are just two years away."</td></tr><tr><td>GM</td><td>15%</td><td>203</td><td>3%</td><td>In 2024 earnings presentation, GM targeted EV wholesales of around 300K units in 2025, which represents a y-o-y growth of c. 50%.</td></tr><tr><td>Rivian</td><td>18%</td><td>56</td><td>17%</td><td>In 1Q25 earnings presentation, Rivian guided to selling 40K and 46K vehicles in 2025, representing a y-o-y decrease between -23% to -11%.</td></tr><tr><td>Volkswagen</td><td>11% 17% 20%</td><td>1,000</td><td>0%</td><td>Volkswagen delivered 745K units of BEV and 270K units of PHEV in 2024 and BEV share was 8.3%. In 2024 earnings presentation, Volkswagen guided the BEV share to increase to 10-14% in 2025, implying a y-o-y growth of 20%-70% (45% at mid point).</td></tr><tr><td>BMW</td><td>43%</td><td>534</td><td>1%</td><td>BMW expects the share of all-electric vehicles in deliveries will increase slightly in 2025 compared to 2024. However, its first NEUE KLASSE vehicle, the BMW iX3, will debut in September 2025, spearheading over 40 new models by 2027.</td></tr><tr><td>Mercedes-Benz</td><td>19%</td><td>407</td><td>-4%</td><td>In Feb'25, Mercedes-Benz guided xEV Cars share to increase to 20-22% of total sales by 2025 (vs. 19% in 2024), and xEV Vans share to increase to 8-10% by 2025 (vs. 5% in 2024).This is expected to increase its total xEV deliveries by c. +10% y-o-y.</td></tr><tr><td>Hyundai Kia</td><td>49%</td><td>530</td><td>2%</td><td>Hyundai Motor 2024 earnings call: "For the 2025 EV sales guidance, compared to this year, the volume will increase from 218,000 to 336,000 which is 53.7% increase.'</td></tr><tr><td>Toyota</td><td></td><td>271</td><td>33%</td><td>Toyota expects its BEV+PHEV sales volume to increase by 70% y-o-y to 519K units in FY2026 (12 months ended Mar'26).</td></tr></table>

\* Only show numbers of key OEM customers for battery cell makers (>10% for CATL and >15% for others) Source: Company data, SNE Research, Bernstein analysis

Below we analyze the xEV battery demand growth of cell makers based on IHS data of OEM production volume forecasts. We use the production volume to approximate the EV sales volume of each OEM, and do not consider the battery size growth in this analysis. Another key assumption is that battery cell makers will maintain their wallet shares in OEM customers, while as mentioned above we found that Chinese battery makers are gaining shares in Europe which could offer more upside for CATL. Overall, SK On (+39% y-o-y), BYD (+38%) and CATL (+23%) are expected to see the fastest battery demand growth in 2025, followed by LGES (23%), Samsung SDI (+18%) and Panasonic (+13%).

EXHIBIT 24: Based on IHS data, SK On, CATL and BYD are expected to see the fastest battery demand growth in 2025, followed by LGES, Panasonic and Samsung SDI

2025 xEV battery demand growth, based on IHS EV forecasts and stable wallet shares of battery makers

BYD 2025 EV production volume from Bernstein Asian Auto Team sales estimate. We expect that Xiaomi’s production volume will reach 300K units in 2025. Source: IHS, Bernstein analysis

Below Exhibit 25 shows IHS forecasts for EV production volume among global major OEMs. IHS expects Tesla’s EV production volume to increase by 10% y-o-y, VW and BMW to grow by 38% and -1% respectively, and Hyundai-Kia to increase by 46% in 2025. This is largely inline with companies’ guidance. In Exhibit 26, IHS data shows that the EV production volume of Stellantis, SAIC, XPeng and Hyundai are expected to accelerate in 2025 while it expects the growth of Chinese OEMs like Huawei AITO, Chery and SAIC-GM-Wuling to slow down in 2025.

EXHIBIT 25: IHS expects Tesla’s EV production volume to increase by 10% y-o-y, VW and BMW to grow by 38% and -1% respectively, and Hyundai-Kia to increase by 46% in 2025

BYD 2025 EV production volume from Bernstein Asian Auto Team sales estimate. We expect that Xiaomi’s production volume will reach 300K units in 2025. Source: IHS, Bernstein analysis

EXHIBIT 26: IHS data shows that the EV growth of Stellantis, SAIC, XPeng and Hyundai are expected to accelerate in 2025

BYD 2025 EV production volume from Bernstein Asian Auto Team sales estimate. We expect that Xiaomi’s production volume will reach 300K units in 2025. Source: IHS, Bernstein analysis Below Exhibit 27 and Exhibit 28 show how we calculate the growth in demand for battery manufacturers based on the EV production volume of OEMs.

EXHIBIT 27: Based on IHS data, CATL xEV battery demand is expected to grow by 23% y-o-y in 2025, mainly driven by Geely, VW and Chery. BYD is expected to grow by 38% y-o-y <table><tr><td colspan="4">2024 xEV battery demand</td><td>2024 wallet share in OEM</td><td>2025 IHS prod' volume growth</td><td>Implied 25' xEV battery demand*</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>GWh</td><td>y-o-y</td><td>%</td><td>Δ</td><td>y-o-y</td><td>GWh</td></tr><tr><td>CATL</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>TESLA</td><td>47</td><td>-2%</td><td>37%</td><td>-1%</td><td>10%</td><td>52</td></tr><tr><td>Geely</td><td>34</td><td>47%</td><td>53%</td><td>-11%</td><td>30%</td><td>45</td></tr><tr><td>VW</td><td>31</td><td>36%</td><td>54%</td><td>13%</td><td>38%</td><td>43</td></tr><tr><td>BMW</td><td>17</td><td>-9%</td><td>53%</td><td>-10%</td><td>-1%</td><td>17</td></tr><tr><td>Huawei/Seres</td><td>17</td><td>263%</td><td>100%</td><td>2%</td><td>27%</td><td>21</td></tr><tr><td>SAIC Li Auto</td><td>16</td><td>-15%</td><td>47%</td><td>-14%</td><td>26%</td><td>20</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>15</td><td>4% 53%</td><td>74% 63%</td><td>-18% -1%</td><td>3%</td><td>15</td></tr><tr><td>Changan Chery</td><td>14</td><td>4672%</td><td>72%</td><td>63%</td><td>31%</td><td>19</td></tr><tr><td>NIO</td><td>14 13</td><td>42%</td><td></td><td>5%</td><td>58%</td><td>22</td></tr><tr><td>Others**</td><td></td><td>17%</td><td>77%</td><td>-1%</td><td>13%</td><td>14</td></tr><tr><td>CATL Total</td><td>77</td><td></td><td>19%</td><td></td><td>23%</td><td>95</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>295</td><td>26%</td><td>36%</td><td>0%</td><td>23%</td><td>363</td></tr><tr><td>BYD</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>0%</td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>BYD***</td><td>136</td><td>28% N.A.</td><td>100% 22%</td><td>22%</td><td>34%</td><td>181</td></tr><tr><td>Xpeng</td><td>3 3</td><td>88%</td><td>26%</td><td>6%</td><td>82% 64%</td><td>6</td></tr><tr><td>Toyota Xiaomi****</td><td>3</td><td>N.A.</td><td>22%</td><td>N.A.</td><td>122%</td><td>5</td></tr><tr><td>Stellantis</td><td>1</td><td>N.A.</td><td>7%</td><td>7%</td><td>116%</td><td>6 3</td></tr><tr><td>Others**</td><td>4</td><td>38%</td><td>1%</td><td>0%</td><td>38%</td><td>6</td></tr><tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>BYD*** Total</td><td>150</td><td>36%</td><td>18%</td><td>2%</td><td>38%</td><td>207</td></tr></table>

\* Assume that the overall battery size remains unchanged and each battery manufacturer's wallet share in OEM remains the same. \*\* Assume that “Others” battery demand growth is in line with that of cell makers’ total demand. \*\*\* BYD 2025 EV sales volume estimates from Bernstein Asian Auto Team. \*\*\*\* Assume Xiaomi’s sales volume to reach 300K units in 2025. Source: IHS, SNE Research, Bernstein analysis

EXHIBIT 28: SK On xEV battery demand is expected to grow by 39% y-o-y in 2025, followed by LGES (+23%), SDI (+18%), and Panasonic (+13%) <table><tr><td colspan="3">2024 xEV battery demand</td><td colspan="2">2024 wallet share in OEM</td><td>2025 IHS prod' volume growth</td><td>Implied 25' xEV battery demand*</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>GWh</td><td>y-o-y</td><td>%</td><td>Δ</td><td>y-o-y</td><td>GWh</td></tr><tr><td>LGES</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>TESLA</td><td>38</td><td>10%</td><td>30%</td><td>2%</td><td>10%</td><td>42</td></tr><tr><td>VW</td><td>16</td><td>-29%</td><td>27%</td><td>-12%</td><td>38%</td><td>22</td></tr><tr><td>GM</td><td>15</td><td>98%</td><td>81%</td><td>26%</td><td>19%</td><td>17</td></tr><tr><td>Ford</td><td>6</td><td>-11%</td><td>38%</td><td>-25%</td><td>50%</td><td>10</td></tr><tr><td>Hyundai Kia</td><td>5</td><td>3%</td><td>17%</td><td>-1%</td><td>46%</td><td>7</td></tr><tr><td>Others**</td><td>14</td><td>-15%</td><td>2%</td><td>-1%</td><td>23%</td><td>17</td></tr><tr><td>LGES Total</td><td>94</td><td>1%</td><td>11%</td><td>-3%</td><td>23%</td><td>115</td></tr><tr><td>SK On</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Hyundai Kia</td><td>18</td><td>0%</td><td>60%</td><td>-5%</td><td>46%</td><td>27</td></tr><tr><td>Mercedes-Benz</td><td>7</td><td>7%</td><td>32%</td><td>4%</td><td>11%</td><td>8</td></tr><tr><td>Ford</td><td>7</td><td>135%</td><td>40%</td><td>15%</td><td>50%</td><td>10</td></tr><tr><td>VW</td><td>5</td><td>33%</td><td>9%</td><td>2%</td><td>38%</td><td>7</td></tr><tr><td>BAIC</td><td>0</td><td>-85%</td><td>1%</td><td>-6%</td><td>19%</td><td>0</td></tr><tr><td>Others**</td><td>0</td><td>23%</td><td>0%</td><td>0%</td><td>39%</td><td>0</td></tr><tr><td>SK On Total</td><td>37</td><td>17%</td><td>5%</td><td>0%</td><td>39%</td><td>52</td></tr><tr><td>Panasonic</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>TESLA</td><td>34</td><td>-20%</td><td>27%</td><td>-7%</td><td>10%</td><td>37</td></tr><tr><td>LUCID</td><td>1</td><td>N.A.</td><td>100%</td><td>100%</td><td>135%</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>Toyota</td><td>0</td><td>N.A.</td><td>0%</td><td>0%</td><td>64%</td><td>0</td></tr><tr><td>vw</td><td>0</td><td>N.A.</td><td>0%</td><td>0%</td><td>38%</td><td>0</td></tr><tr><td>Others**</td><td>0</td><td>N.A.</td><td>0%</td><td>0%</td><td>13%</td><td>0</td></tr><tr><td>Panasonic Total</td><td>35</td><td>-18%</td><td>4%</td><td>-2%</td><td>13%</td><td>40</td></tr><tr><td>SDI</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>BMW</td><td>12</td><td>16%</td><td>39%</td><td>3%</td><td>-1%</td><td>12</td></tr><tr><td>VW</td><td>6</td><td>-20%</td><td>10%</td><td>-3%</td><td>38%</td><td>8</td></tr><tr><td>Rivian</td><td>5</td><td>-14%</td><td>78%</td><td>-22%</td><td>-8%</td><td>5</td></tr><tr><td>Stellantis</td><td>3</td><td>-37%</td><td>18%</td><td>-8%</td><td>116%</td><td>6</td></tr><tr><td>TATA</td><td>2</td><td>150%</td><td>41%</td><td>16%</td><td>4%</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>Others**</td><td>1</td><td>-73%</td><td>0%</td><td>0%</td><td>18%</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>SDI Total</td><td>29</td><td>-11%</td><td>4%</td><td>-1%</td><td>18%</td><td>34</td></tr></table>

CATL grew its xEV battery installation to 295GWh in 2024 (+26% y-o-y) and is expected to increase by 23% to 363GWh in 2025 based on IHS data. In 2024, key customers that contributed to CATL’s growth included Chery (+14GWh), Huawei AITO (+12GWh), Geely (+11GWh) and Volkswagen (+8GWh). SAIC (-3GWh) was a drag in 2024 mainly due to the share loss of CATL. In 2025 key customers for CATL’s EV battery sales growth include Volkswagen, Geely, Chery and Tesla. As for the supply shares among OEMs, we highlight the upside from VW (CATL’s share in VW increased to 54% in 2024, +13%-points) but downside from Geely as it is actively expanding its in-house battery supply.

EXHIBIT 29: CATL xEV battery growth breakdown by OEM customers. Key customers to watch in 2025 are VW, Geely, Chery and Tesla CATL xEV battery installation, GWh

\*\* Assume that 2025 “Others” battery demand growth is in line with that of cell makers’ total demand Source: IHS, SNE Research, Bernstein analysis

BYD grew its xEV battery installation to 150GWh in 2024 (+36% y-o-y) and is expected to increase by 38% to 207GWh in 2025 based on IHS data. In 2024, external battery sales accounted for 10% of BYD’s total battery demand, but it accounted for 25% of its battery demand growth last year. BYD started to supply its LFP batteries to some popular EV models like Xiaomi SU7 and XPeng MONA 03. For 2025, IHS data indicate high grwoth potential for its key customers like Toyota, XPeng and Stellantis.

EXHIBIT 30: BYD xEV battery growth breakdown by OEM customers. External battery sales are becoming more meaningful (around 20% of total battery demand growth in 2025)

BYD xEV battery installation, GWh

\*\* Assume that 2025 “Others” battery demand growth is in line with that of cell makers’ total demand Source: IHS, SNE Research, Bernstein analysis

LGES grew its xEV battery installation to 94GWh in 2024 (+1% y-o-y) and is expected to increase by 23% to 115GWh in 2025 based on IHS data. In 2024, the growth of LGES battery demand mainly came from GM (+7GWh) and Tesla (+3GWh), and LGES gained the supply shares to both of them in the US. However, the growth was partially offset by the share losses in Volkswagen (mainly replaced by CATL) and Ford (mainly replaced by SK On). For 2025, the growth of LGES will still depend on Volkswagen and Tesla while there are risks of competition in Europe and Tesla’s sales slowdown.

EXHIBIT 31: LGES xEV battery growth breakdown by OEM customers. LGES lost 20%-points shares supply to VW in 2024. 2025 demand growth will be highly dependent on VW and Tesla

LGES xEV battery installation, GWh

\*\* Assume that 2025 “Others” battery demand growth is in line with that of cell makers’ total demand Source: IHS, SNE Research, Bernstein analysis

SK On grew its xEV battery installation to 37GWh in 2024 (+17% y-o-y) and is expected to increase by 39% to 52GWh in 2025 based on IHS data. In 2024, the battery demand growth was driven by Ford (+4GWh) and its 2025 battery demand growth will be mainly driven by both Hyundai-Kia (+8GWh) and Ford (+3GWh). SK On has JV plants with both Ford and Hyundai-Kia to be commissioned in 2025 which indicates the upside for it to gain supply shares in these two key customers.

EXHIBIT 32: SK On xEV battery growth breakdown by OEM customers. The battery demand growth of SK On in 2025 mainly depends on Hyundai and Ford

SK On xEV battery installation, GWh

\*\* Assume that 2025 “Others” battery demand growth is in line with that of cell makers’ total demand Source: IHS, SNE Research, Bernstein analysis

The xEV battery installation of Panasonic was 35GWh in 2024 (-18% y-o-y) and is expected to increase by 13% to 40GWh in 2025 based on IHS data. The growth of Panasonic's battery business can be almost entirely attributed to the growth of Tesla and the wallet share delta. Tesla EV battery demand declined by 1% y-o-y in 2024 but Panasonic lost shares in its supply to Model 3 (-4%-points and LGES gained shares) and Model Y (-5%-points and Tesla itself gained shares).

EXHIBIT 33: Panasonic xEV battery growth breakdown by OEM customers. Panasonic lost 15%-points shares supply to Tesla (replaced by Tesla itself) in 2024

Panasonic xEV battery installation, GWh

\*\* Assume that 2025 “Others” battery demand growth is in line with that of cell makers’ total demand Source: IHS, SNE Research, Bernstein analysis

The xEV battery installation of SDI was 29GWh in 2024 (-11% y-o-y) and is expected to increase by 18% to 34GWh in 2025 based on IHS data. The battery demand growth from BMW (+2GWh) and TATA (+1GWh) were offset by declined in Vinfast, Stellantis, Volkswagen and Rivian. 2025 growth of SDI will call for the EV sales rebound of European OEMs like Stellantis and Volkswagen which is risky. For Stellantis, its EV sales declined by 17% y-o-y in 2024 and has not publicly disclosed a specific EV sales target for the US or globally for 2025. For Volkswagen, SDI will also be faced with intensified competition from Chinese rivals.

EXHIBIT 34: Samsung SDI xEV battery growth breakdown by OEM customers. Based on IHS data, the battery demand growth of SDI in 2025 mainly depends on Stellantis and VW while its largest customer BMW have limited upside

Samsung SDI xEV battery installation, GWh

\*\* Assume that 2025 “Others” battery demand growth is in line with that of cell makers’ total demand Source: IHS, SNE Research, Bernstein analysis

FIVE-YEAR OUTLOOK FOR GROWTH – BETTER FOR KOREANS?

Based on forecast EV sales and current share of wallet we can project future sales for each company over the next 5 years. These numbers will change and are dependent on (a) the growth rate of each OEM over the next 5 years and (b) the change in the share of wallet, which will also likely change over the next 5 years are battery makers adjust suppliers. What is noticeable is that Korean battery makers are forecast to grow more quickly than their Chinese peers. This reflects faster sales growth of US OEM’s selling EV’s over the next 5 years relative to China, which is reaching maturity with 50% penetration. Whether the US market takes off, is clearly a major question and whether Chinese battery makers will be fully excluded from this market remains unclear. We think it possible that China could play a bigger role than currently expected, particularly if US-China trade relations ease. However, at face value it does indicate that sales for non-Chinese battery makers should improve. For companies such as CATL, we expect that growth in sectors other than EV (ESS, trucks, data centers) will become increasingly important and wil also supplement to the growth.

EXHIBIT 35: Based on IHS data, Korean battery cell makers are expected to see the fastest battery demand growth until to 2030, followed by CATL, Panasonic and BYD

2024-30 xEV battery demand CAGR, based on IHS EV forecasts and stable wallet shares of battery makers

Assume that the overall battery size remains unchanged and each battery manufacturer's wallet share in OEM remains the same Source: IHS, SNE Research, Bernstein analysis

EXHIBIT 36: Based on IHS data, CATL xEV battery demand is expected to grow at a CAGR of 14% from 2024 to 2030, mainly driven by VW, Geely and Chery. BYD is expected to grow at a CAGR of 9% <table><tr><td rowspan="2"></td><td colspan="2">2024 xEV battery demand</td><td colspan="2">2024 wallet share in OEM</td><td rowspan="2">2024-30 IHS prod' volume growth CAGR</td><td rowspan="2">Implied 2030' xEV battery demand* GWh</td></tr><tr><td>GWh</td><td>y-o-y</td><td>%</td><td>Δ</td></tr><tr><td>CATL</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>TESLA</td><td>47</td><td>-2%</td><td>37%</td><td>-1%</td><td>7%</td><td>73</td></tr><tr><td>Geely</td><td>34</td><td>47%</td><td>53%</td><td>-11%</td><td>12%</td><td>67</td></tr><tr><td>VW</td><td>31</td><td>36%</td><td>54%</td><td>13%</td><td>26%</td><td>125</td></tr><tr><td>BMW</td><td>17</td><td>-9%</td><td>53%</td><td>-10%</td><td>13%</td><td>34</td></tr><tr><td>Huawei/Seres</td><td>17</td><td>263%</td><td>100%</td><td>2%</td><td>5%</td><td>23</td></tr><tr><td>SAIC</td><td>16</td><td>-15%</td><td>47%</td><td>-14%</td><td>11%</td><td>30</td></tr><tr><td>Li Auto</td><td>15</td><td>4%</td><td>74%</td><td>-18%</td><td>3%</td><td>18</td></tr><tr><td>Changan</td><td>14</td><td>53%</td><td>63%</td><td>-1%</td><td>16%</td><td>36</td></tr><tr><td>Chery</td><td>14</td><td>4672%</td><td>72%</td><td>63%</td><td>20%</td><td>43</td></tr><tr><td>NIO</td><td>13</td><td>42%</td><td>77%</td><td>5%</td><td>12%</td><td>25</td></tr><tr><td>Others**</td><td>77</td><td>17%</td><td>19%</td><td>-1%</td><td>14%</td><td>167</td></tr><tr><td>CATL Total</td><td>295</td><td>26%</td><td>36%</td><td>0%</td><td>14%</td><td>640</td></tr><tr><td>BYD</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>BYD</td><td>136</td><td>28%</td><td>100%</td><td>0%</td><td>4%</td><td>168</td></tr><tr><td>Xpeng</td><td>3</td><td>N.A.</td><td>22%</td><td>22%</td><td>22%</td><td>10</td></tr><tr><td>Toyota</td><td>3</td><td>88%</td><td>26%</td><td>6%</td><td>46%</td><td>28</td></tr><tr><td>Xiaomi***</td><td>3</td><td>N.A.</td><td>22%</td><td>N.A.</td><td>50%</td><td>33</td></tr><tr><td>Stellantis</td><td>1</td><td>N.A.</td><td>7%</td><td>7%</td><td>37%</td><td>8</td></tr><tr><td>Others**</td><td>4</td><td>38%</td><td>1%</td><td>0%</td><td>9%</td><td>7</td></tr><tr><td>BYD Total</td><td>150</td><td>36%</td><td>18%</td><td>2%</td><td>9%</td><td>254</td></tr></table>

\* Assume that the overall battery size remains unchanged and each battery manufacturer's wallet share in OEM remains the same. \*\* Assume that “Others” battery demand growth is in line with that of cell makers’ total demand. \*\*\* Xiaomi’s sales volume estimated by Bernstein Source: IHS, SNE Research, Bernstein analysis

EXHIBIT 37: SK On xEV battery demand is expected to grow at a CAGR of 25% over the next six years, followed by SDI (+23%), LGES (+19%), and Panasonic (+9%) <table><tr><td rowspan="2"></td><td colspan="2">2024 xEV battery demand</td><td colspan="2">2024 wallet share in OEM</td><td rowspan="2">2024-30 IHS prod' volume growth</td><td rowspan="2">Implied 2030' xEV battery demand*</td></tr><tr><td>GWh</td><td>y-o-y</td><td>%</td><td>Δ</td></tr><tr><td>LGES</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>CAGR</td><td>GWh</td></tr><tr><td>TESLA</td><td>38</td><td>10%</td><td>30%</td><td>2%</td><td>7%</td><td>59</td></tr><tr><td>VW</td><td>16</td><td>-29%</td><td>27%</td><td>-12%</td><td>26%</td><td>63</td></tr><tr><td>GM</td><td>15</td><td>98%</td><td>81%</td><td>26%</td><td>24%</td><td>54</td></tr><tr><td>Ford</td><td>6</td><td>-11%</td><td>38%</td><td>-25%</td><td>33%</td><td>35</td></tr><tr><td>Hyundai Kia</td><td>5</td><td>3%</td><td>17%</td><td>-1%</td><td>24%</td><td>18</td></tr><tr><td>Others**</td><td>14</td><td>-15%</td><td>2%</td><td>-1%</td><td>19%</td><td>41</td></tr><tr><td>LGES Total</td><td>94</td><td>1%</td><td>11%</td><td>-3%</td><td>19%</td><td>270</td></tr><tr><td>SK On</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Hyundai Kia</td><td>18</td><td>0%</td><td>60%</td><td>-5%</td><td>24%</td><td>66</td></tr><tr><td>Mercedes-Benz</td><td>7</td><td>7%</td><td>32%</td><td>4%</td><td>20%</td><td>21</td></tr><tr><td>Ford</td><td>7</td><td>135%</td><td>40%</td><td>15%</td><td>33%</td><td>37</td></tr><tr><td>VW</td><td>5</td><td>33%</td><td>9%</td><td>2%</td><td>26%</td><td>20</td></tr><tr><td>BAIC</td><td>0</td><td>-85%</td><td>1%</td><td>-6%</td><td>16%</td><td>0</td></tr><tr><td>Others**</td><td>0</td><td>23%</td><td>0%</td><td>0%</td><td>25%</td><td>0</td></tr><tr><td>SK On Total</td><td>37</td><td>17%</td><td>5%</td><td>0%</td><td>25%</td><td>145</td></tr><tr><td>Panasonic</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>TESLA</td><td>34</td><td>-20%</td><td>27%</td><td>-7%</td><td>7%</td><td>53</td></tr><tr><td>LUCID</td><td>1</td><td>N.A.</td><td>100%</td><td>100%</td><td>44%</td><td>8</td></tr><tr><td>Toyota</td><td>0</td><td>N.A.</td><td>0%</td><td>0%</td><td>46%</td><td>0</td></tr><tr><td>Vw</td><td>0</td><td>N.A.</td><td>0%</td><td>0%</td><td>26%</td><td>0</td></tr><tr><td>Others**</td><td>0</td><td>N.A.</td><td>0%</td><td>0%</td><td>9%</td><td>0</td></tr><tr><td>Panasonic Total</td><td>35</td><td>-18%</td><td>4%</td><td>-2%</td><td>9%</td><td>60</td></tr><tr><td>SDI</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>BMW</td><td>12</td><td>16%</td><td>39%</td><td>3%</td><td>13%</td><td>25</td></tr><tr><td>VW</td><td>6</td><td>-20%</td><td>10%</td><td>-3%</td><td>26%</td><td>23</td></tr><tr><td>Rivian</td><td>5</td><td>-14%</td><td>78%</td><td>-22%</td><td>28%</td><td>24</td></tr><tr><td>Stellantis</td><td>3</td><td>-37%</td><td>18%</td><td>-8%</td><td>37%</td><td>20</td></tr><tr><td>TATA</td><td>2</td><td>150%</td><td>41%</td><td>16%</td><td>22%</td><td>6</td></tr><tr><td>Others**</td><td>1</td><td>-73%</td><td>0%</td><td>0%</td><td>23%</td><td>3</td></tr><tr><td>SDI Total</td><td>29</td><td>-11%</td><td>4%</td><td>-1%</td><td>23%</td><td>100</td></tr></table>

\* Assume that the overall battery size remains unchanged and each battery manufacturer's wallet share in OEM remains the same. \*\* Assume that “Others” battery demand growth is in line with that of cell makers’ total demand. \*\*\* Xiaomi’s sales volume estimated by Bernstein Source: IHS, SNE Research, Bernstein analysis

I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES

References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC (April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited 盛博香港有限公司, Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, Sanford C. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited and Sanford C. Bernstein Japan KK (サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社).

On April 1, 2024, Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB) completed a transaction that created a new joint venture in which their respective cash equities and research businesses operate in a new business combination. Although their respective ownership percentages in the joint venture differ between North America and the rest of the world, the creation, production and publication of research is handled collaboratively on a global basis across the two research brands, “Bernstein” and “Autonomous”. Unless specifically noted otherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG and AB and their respective affiliates

VALUATION METHODOLOGY

This research publication covers six or more companies. For valuation methodology and other company disclosures: Please visit: https://bernstein-autonomous.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action. Or, you can also write to the Director of Compliance, Bernstein Institutional Services LLC, 245 Park Avenue, New York, NY 10167.

RISKS

This research publication covers six or more companies. For risks and other company disclosures:

Please visit: https://bernstein-autonomous.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action.

Or, you can also write to the Director of Compliance, Bernstein Institutional Services LLC, 245 Park Avenue, New York, NY 10167.

RATINGS DEFINITIONS, BENCHMARKS AND DISTRIBUTION

Bernstein brand

The Bernstein brand rates stocks based on forecasts of relative performance for the next 12 months versus the S&P 500 for stocks listed on the U.S. and Canadian exchanges, versus the Bloomberg Europe Developed Markets Large and Mid Cap Price Return Index (EDM) for stocks listed on the European exchanges and emerging markets exchanges outside of the Asia Pacific region, versus the Bloomberg Japan Large and Mid Cap Price Return Index USD (JP) for stocks listed on the Japanese exchanges and versus the Bloomberg Asia ex-Japan Large and Mid Cap Price Return Index (ASIAX) for stocks listed on the Asian (ex-Japan) exchanges -unless otherwise specified.

The Bernstein brand has three categories of ratings:

• Outperform: Stock will outpace the market index by more than 15 pp

• Market-Perform: Stock will perform in line with the market index to within +/-15 pp

• Underperform: Stock will trail the performance of the market index by more than 15 pp

Coverage Suspended: Coverage of a company under the Bernstein research brand has been suspended. Ratings and price targets are suspended temporarily, are no longer current, and should therefore not be relied upon.

Not Rated: A rating assigned when the stock cannot be accurately valued, or the performance of the company accurately predicted, at the present time. The covering analyst may continue to publish research reports on the company to update investors on events and developments.

Not Covered (NC) denotes companies that are not under coverage.

Autonomous brand

The Autonomous brand rates stocks as indicated below. As our benchmarks we use the Bloomberg Europe 500 Banks And Financial Services Index (BEBANKS) and Bloomberg Europe Dev Mkt Financials Large and Mid Cap Price Ret Index EUR (EDMFI) index for developed European banks and Payments, the Bloomberg Europe 500 Insurance Index (BEINSUR) for European insurers, the S&P 500 and S&P Financials for US banks and Payments coverage, S5LIFE for US Insurance, the S&P Insurance

Select Industry (SPSIINS) for US Non-Life Insurers coverage, and the Bloomberg Emerging Markets Financials Large, Mid and Small Cap Price Return Index (EMLSF) for emerging market banks and insurers and Payments. Ratings are stated relative to the sector (not the market).

The Autonomous brand has three categories of ratings:

• Outperform (OP): Stock will outpace the relevant index by more than 10 pp

• Neutral (N): Stock will perform in line with the market index to within +/-10 pp

• Underperform (UP): Stock will trail the performance of the relevant index by more than 10 pp

Those denoted as ‘Feature’ (e.g., Feature Outperform FOP, Feature Under Outperform FUP) are our core ideas. Not Covered (NC) denotes companies that are not under coverage.

Horizon and classification

For both brands, recommendations are based on a 12-month time horizon.

DISTRIBUTION OF RATINGS/INVESTMENT BANKING SERVICES <table><tr><td>Rating</td><td>Market Abuse Regulation (MAR) and FINRA Rule 2241 classification</td><td>Count</td><td>Percent</td><td></td><td>Count* Percent*</td></tr><tr><td>Outperform</td><td>BUY</td><td>573</td><td>51.76%</td><td>109</td><td>19.02%</td></tr><tr><td>Market-Perform (Bernstein Brand) Neutral (Autonomous Brand)</td><td>HOLD</td><td>387</td><td>34.96%</td><td>67</td><td>17.31%</td></tr><tr><td>Underperform</td><td>SELL</td><td>147</td><td>13.28%</td><td>19</td><td>12.93%</td></tr></table>

\* These figures represent the number and percentage of companies in each category to whom affiliates of Bernstein and Autonomous provided investment banking services. As of April 9, 2025. All figures are updated quarterly.

PRICE CHARTS/ RATINGS AND PRICE TARGET HISTORY

This research publication covers six or more companies. For price chart and other company disclosures, please visit https:// bernstein-autonomous.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action or you can write to the Director of Compliance, Bernstein Institutional Services LLC, 245 Park Avenue, New York, NY 10167.

CONFLICTS OF INTEREST

An affiliate of Bernstein has received compensation for non-investment banking securities-related products or services in the previous twelve months from the following clients: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co Ltd.

Bernstein and/or affiliates have received compensation for non-investment banking securities-related products or services in the previous twelve months from the following clients: LG Energy Solution, LG Chem Ltd and Samsung SDI Co Ltd.

Bernstein has received compensation for non-investment banking securities-related products or services in the previous twelve months from the following clients: Samsung SDI Co Ltd.

Certain affiliates of Bernstein act as market maker or liquidity provider in the debt securities of: LG Energy Solution and LG Chem Ltd.

OTHER MATTERS

The legal entity(ies) employing the analyst(s) listed in this report, and their location, can be determined by the country code of their phone number, as follows:

+1 Bernstein Institutional Services LLC; New York, New York, USA

+44 Bernstein Autonomous LLP; London UK

+33 BSG France S.A.; Paris, France

+41 Bernstein Autonomous LLP; Geneva, Switzerland

+49 BSG France S.A.; Frankfurt, Germany

+91 Sanford C. Bernstein (India) Private Limited; Mumbai, India

+852 Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited 盛博香港有限公司; Hong Kong, China

+65 Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited; Singapore

+81 Sanford C. Bernstein Japan KK; Tokyo, Japan

Where this report has been prepared by research analyst(s) employed by a non-US affiliate, such analyst(s), is/are (unless otherwise expressly noted below) not registered as associated persons of Bernstein Institutional Services LLC or any other SECregistered broker-dealer and are not licensed or qualified as research analysts with FINRA. Accordingly, such analyst(s) may not be subject to FINRA’s restrictions regarding (among other things) communications by research analysts with a subject company, interactions between research analysts and investment banking personnel, participation by research analysts in solicitation and marketing activities relating to investment banking transactions, public appearances by research analysts, and trading securities held by a research analyst account.

CERTIFICATION

Each research analyst listed in this report, who is primarily responsible for the preparation of the content of this report, certifies that all of the views expressed in this publication accurately reflect that analyst's personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers and that no part of that analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views in this publication.

II. ADDITIONAL GLOBAL CONFLICT DISCLOSURES

It is at the sole discretion of the Firm as to when to initiate, update and cease research coverage. The Firm has established, maintains and relies on information barriers to control the flow of information contained in one or more areas (i.e., the private side) within the Firm, and into other areas, units, groups or affiliates (i.e., public side) of the Firm.

III. OTHER IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND DISCLOSURES

Separate branding is maintained for “Bernstein” and “Autonomous” research products.

• Bernstein produces a number of different types of research products including, among others, fundamental analysis and quantitative analysis under both the “Autonomous” and “Bernstein” brands. Recommendations contained within one type of research product may differ from recommendations contained within other types of research products, whether as a result of differing time horizons, methodologies or otherwise. Furthermore, views or recommendations within a research product issued under one brand may differ from views or recommendations under the same type of research product issued under the other brand. The Research Ratings System for the two brands and other information related to those Rating Systems are included in the previous section.

• Autonomous operates as a separate business unit within the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC, Bernstein Autonomous LLP, Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited 盛博香港有限公司 and Sanford C. Bernstein (India) Private Limited. For information relating to “Autonomous” branded products (including certain Sales materials) please visit: www.autonomous.com. For information relating to Bernstein branded products please visit: www.bernsteinresearch.com.

Analysts are compensated based on aggregate contributions to the research franchise as measured by account penetration, productivity and proactivity of investment ideas. No analysts are compensated based on performance in, or contributions to

generating investment banking revenues.

This report has been produced by an independent analyst as defined in Article 3 (1)(34)(i) of EU 596/2014 Market Abuse Regulation (“MAR”) and the same article of MAR as it forms part of United Kingdom domestic law by virtue of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018.

To our readers in the United States: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC, a broker-dealer registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) and a member of the U.S. Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, Inc. (“FINRA”) is distributing this publication in the United States and accepts responsibility for its contents. Where this material contains an analysis of debt product(s), such material is intended only for institutional investors and is not subject to the US independence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research prepared for retail investors.

Bernstein Institutional Services LLC may act as principal for its own account or as agent for another person (including an affiliate) in sales or purchases of any security which is a subject of this report. This report does not purport to meet the objectives or needs of any specific individuals, entities or accounts.

To our readers in Canada: If this publication pertains to a Canadian domiciled company, it is being distributed in Canada by Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, which is licensed and regulated by the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization. If the publication pertains to a non-Canadian domiciled company, it is being distributed by Bernstein Institutional Services LLC, which is licensed and regulated by both the SEC and FINRA, into Canada under the International Dealers Exemption.

This document may not be passed onto any person in Canada unless that person qualifies as "permitted client" as defined in Section 1.1 of NI 31-103.

To our readers in Brazil: This report has been prepared by Bernstein Institutional Services LLC, and Banco BTG Pactual S.A. ("BTG") is responsible for the distribution of this report in Brazil.

To readers in the United Kingdom: This publication has been issued or approved for issue in the United Kingdom by Bernstein Autonomous LLP, authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and located at 60 London Wall, London EC2M 5SH, +44 (0)20-7170-5000. Registered in England & Wales No OC343985.

This document is for distribution only to persons who (i) have professional experience in matters relating to investments falling within Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (as amended, the “Financial Promotion Order”), (ii) are persons falling within Article 49(2)(a) to (d) (“high net worth companies, unincorporated associations, etc.”) of the Financial Promotion Order, (iii) are outside the United Kingdom, or (iv) are persons to whom an invitation or inducement to engage in investment activity (within the meaning of section 21 of the FSMA) in connection with the issue or sale of any securities may otherwise lawfully be communicated or caused to be communicated (all such persons together being referred to as “relevant persons”). This document is directed only at relevant persons and must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not relevant persons. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to relevant persons and will be engaged in only with relevant persons.

To our readers in Ireland and the member states of the EEA: This publication is being distributed by BSG France SA, which is authorised and regulated by the Autorité de Contrôle Prudentiel et de Résolution and Autorité des marchés financiers.

To our readers in Hong Kong: This publication is being distributed in Hong Kong by Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited 盛博香港有限公司, which is licensed and regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (Central Entity No. AXC846) to carry out Type 4 (Advising on Securities) regulated activities and subject to the licensing conditions mentioned in the SFC Public Register (https://www.sfc.hk/publicregWeb/corp/AXC846/details)). This publication is solely for professiona investors, as defined in the Securities and Futures Ordinance (Cap. 571).

To our readers in Singapore: This publication is being distributed in Singapore by Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited, only to accredited investors or institutional investors, as defined in the Securities and Futures Act 2001 of Singapore ("SFA"). Recipients in Singapore should contact Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited in respect of matters arising from, or in connection with, this publication. Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and licensed under the SFA as a capital markets services licence holder for dealing in capital markets products that are securities and collective investment schemes and an exempt financial adviser for advising on, issuing and promulgating analyses and reports on securities. Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited is registered in Singapore with Company Registration No. 20213710W and located at One Raffles Quay, #27-11 South Tower, Singapore 048583, +65-6230-4612.

To our readers in the People’s Republic of China: The securities referred to in this document are not being offered or sold and may not be offered or sold, directly or indirectly, in the People's Republic of China (for such purposes, not including the Hong Kong and Macau Special Administrative Regions or Taiwan, the “PRC”) in contravention of any applicable laws of the PRC.

This document does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities in the PRC to any person to whom it is unlawful to make the offer or solicitation in the PRC.

We do not represent that this document may be lawfully distributed, or that any securities may be lawfully offered, in compliance with any applicable registration or other requirements in the PRC, or pursuant to an exemption available thereunder, or assume any responsibility for facilitating any such distribution or offering. In particular, no action has been taken by us which would permit a public offering of any securities or distribution of this document in the PRC. Accordingly, the securities are not being offered or sold within the PRC by means of this document or any other document. Neither this document nor any advertisement or other offering material may be distributed or published in the PRC, except under circumstances that will result in compliance with any applicable laws and regulations.

To our readers in Japan: This publication is being distributed in Japan by Sanford C. Bernstein Japan KK (サンフォード・ C・バーンスタイン株式会社), which is registered in Japan as a Financial Instruments Business Operator with the Kanto Local Finance Bureau (registration number: The Director-General of Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO) No.3387) and regulated by the Financial Services Agency. It is also a member of Japan Investment Advisers Association. This publication is solely for qualified institutional investors in Japan only, as defined in Article 2, paragraph (3), items (i) of the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act.

For the institutional client readers in Japan who have been granted access to the Bernstein website by Daiwa Securities Group Inc. (“Daiwa”), your access to this document should not be construed as meaning that Bernstein is providing you with investment advice for any purposes. Whilst Bernstein has prepared this document, your relationship is, and will remain with, Daiwa, and Bernstein has neither any contractual relationship with you nor any obligations towards you.

To our readers in Australia: Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited 盛博香港有限公司 is responsible for distributing research in Australia. It is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission under U.S. laws, by the Financial Conduct Authority under U.K. laws, which differs from Australian laws. Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited 盛博香港有限公司 is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services license under the Corporations Act 2001 in respect of the provision of the following financial services to wholesale clients:

• providing financial product advice;

• dealing in a financial product;

• making a market for a financial product; and

• providing a custodial or depository service.

To our readers in India: This publication is being distributed in India by Sanford C. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SCB India) which is licensed and regulated by Securities and Exchange Board of India ("SEBI") as a research analyst entity under the SEB (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014, having registration no. INH000006378 and as a stock broker having registration no. INZ000213537. SCB India is currently engaged in the business of providing research and stock broking services. Please refer to www.bernsteinresearch.in for more information.

• SCB India is a Private limited company incorporated under the Companies Act, 2013, on April 12, 2017 bearing corporate identification number U65999MH2017FTC293762, and registered office at Level 3A, 4th Floor, First International Financial Centre, Plot Nos C-54 and C-55, G Block, Near CBI Office, Bandra Kurla Complex, Bandra (East), Mumbai 400098, Maharashtra, India (Phone No: +91-22-68421401).

• For details of Associates (i.e., affiliates/group companies) of SCB India, kindly email scbincompliance@bernsteinsg.com.

• SCB India does not have any disciplinary history as on the date of this report.

• Except as noted above, SCB India and/or its Associates (i.e., affiliates/group companies), the Research Analysts authoring this report, and their relatives

• do not have any financial interest in the subject company

• do not have actual/beneficial ownership of one percent or more in securities of the subject company;

• is not engaged in any investment banking activities for Indian companies, as such;

• have not managed or co-managed a public offering in the past twelve months for any Indian companies;

• have not received any compensation for investment banking services or merchant banking services from the subject company in the past 12 months;

• have not received compensation for brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months;

• have not received any compensation or other benefits from the subject company or third party related to the specific recommendations or views in this report; and

• do not currently, but may in the future, act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the companies covered in the report.

• do not have any conflict of interest in the subject company as of the date of this report.

• Except as noted above, the subject company has not been a client of SCB India during twelve months preceding the date of distribution of this research report. Neither SCB India nor its Associates (i.e., affiliates/group companies) have received compensation for products or services other than investment banking, merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months.

• The principal research analyst(s) who prepared this report, members of the analysts' team, and members of their households are not an officer, director, employee or advisory board member of the companies covered in the report.

• Our Compliance officer / Grievance officer is Ms. Rupal Talati, who can be reached at +91-22-68421451, or scbincompliance@bernsteinsg.com / Scbin-investorgrievance@bernsteinsg.com

• The investor charter of SCB India is available on its website and may be accessed at Sanford C. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (bernsteinresearch.in)

• Disclaimer: Registration granted by SEBI, and certification from NISM, is in no way a guarantee of performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors. Investments in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.

To our readers in Switzerland: This document is provided in Switzerland by or through Bernstein Autonomous LLP, and is provided only to qualified investors as defined in article 10 of the Swiss Collective Investment Scheme Act (“CISA”) and related provisions of the Collective Investment Scheme Ordinance and in strict compliance with applicable Swiss law and regulations. The products mentioned in this document may not be suitable for all types of investors. This document is based on the Directives on the Independence of Financial Research issued by the Swiss Bankers Association (SBA) in January 2008.

To our readers in the Middle East: Bernstein Autonomous LLP, DIFC branch has its principal office at Gate Village 06, DIFC, Dubai, UAE. Bernstein Autonomous LLP, DIFC branch is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA) with the registration number F008549 and is provisioned for Arranging Deals in Investments and Advising on Financial Products. Al communications and services are directed at Professional Clients and Market Counterparties only (as defined in the DFSA rulebook). Persons other than Professional Clients and Market Counterparties, such as Retail Clients, are not the intended recipients of our communications or services.

LEGAL

All research publications are disseminated to our clients through posting on the firm's password protected websites bernsteinresearch.com and autonomous.com. Certain, but not all, research publications are also made available to clients through third-party vendors or redistributed to clients through alternate electronic means as a convenience.

This publication has been published and distributed in accordance with the Firm's policy for management of conflicts of interest in investment research, a copy of which is available from Bernstein Institutional Services LLC, Director of Compliance, 245 Park Avenue, New York, NY 10167. Additional disclosures and information regarding Bernstein's business are available on our website www.bernsteinresearch.com.

The securities described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors where that permission profile is not consistent with the licenses held by the entities noted herein. This document is for distribution only as may be permitted by law. This publication is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of, or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject any of the entities referenced herein or any of their subsidiarie or affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. This publication is based upon public sources we believe to be reliable, but no representation is made by us that the publication is accurate or complete. We do not undertake to advise you of any change in the reported information or in the opinions herein. This publication was prepared and issued by entity referred to herein for distribution to eligible counterparties or professional clients. This publication is not an offer to buy or sell any security, and it does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. The investments referred to herein may not be suitable for you. Investors must make their own investment decisions in consultation with their professional advisors in light of their specific circumstances. The value of investments may fluctuate, and investments that are denominated in foreign currencies may fluctuate in value as a result of exposure to exchange rate movements. Information about past performance of an investment is not necessarily a guide to, indicator of, or assurance of, future performance.

This report is directed to and intended only for our clients who are “eligible counterparties”, “professional clients”, “institutional investors” and/or “professional investors” as defined by the aforementioned regulators, and must not be redistributed to retail clients as defined by the aforementioned regulators. Retail clients who receive this report should note that the services of the entities noted herein are not available to them and should not rely on the material herein to make an investment decision. The result of such act will not hold the entities noted herein liable for any loss thus incurred as the entities noted herein are not registered authorised/ licensed to deal with retail clients and will not enter into any contractual agreement/arrangement with retail clients. This report is provided subject to the terms and conditions of any agreement that the clients may have entered into with the entities noted herein. All research reports are disseminated on a simultaneous basis to eligible clients through electronic publication to our client portal. The information is private and confidential and for the use of the clients only.

This report has been prepared for information purposes only and is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but the entities noted herein do not warrant or represent (express or implied) as to the sources of information or data contained herein are accurate, complete, not misleading or as to its fitness for the purpose intended even though the entities noted herein rely on reputable or trustworthy data providers, it should not be relied upon as such. Opinions expressed are the author(s)’ current opinions as of the date appearing on the material only and we do not undertake to advise you of any change in the reported information or in the opinions herein.

This publication was prepared and issued by the entity referred to herein for distribution to eligible counterparties or professiona clients. The information in this report is intended for general circulation and does not constitute an offer to buy or sell any security, investment, legal or tax advice nor a personal recommendation, as defined by any of the aforementioned regulators. It does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual investors. The report has not been reviewed by any of the aforementioned regulators and does not represent any official recommendation from the aforementioned regulators. The investments referred to herein may not be suitable for you. Investors must make their own investment decisions in consultation with advice sought from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any recipient of the recommendation, before the recipient makes a commitment to purchase the investment product.

The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results. The information in this report does not constitute, or form part of, any offer to sell or issue, or any offer to purchase or subscribe for shares, or to induce engage in any other investment activity. The value of any securities or financial instruments mentioned in this report may fluctuate subject to market conditions. Information about past performance of an investment is not necessarily a guide to, indicative of, or assurance of future performance. Estimates of future performance mentioned by the research analyst in this report are based on assumptions that may not be realized due to unforeseen factors like market volatility/fluctuation. In relation to securities or financial instruments denominated in a foreign currency other than the clients’ home currency, movements in exchange rates will have an effect on the value, either favorable or unfavorable. Before acting on any recommendations in this report, recipients should consider the appropriateness of investing in the subject securities or financial instruments mentioned in this report and, if necessary, seek for independent professional advice.

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No part of this material may be reproduced, distributed or transmitted or otherwise made available without prior consent of the entities noted herein. Copyright Bernstein Institutional Services LLC Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A., Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited 盛博香港有限公司, Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, Sanford C. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited and Sanford C. Bernstein Japan 一 $w (+) > 7 + - F \cdot 0 \cdot 1 r ˚ - > 7 \times 7 \times 1 > 1 \frac{4}{11} \pm [\frac{5}{12} \frac{4}{12}] .$ . All rights reserved. The trademarks and service marks contained herein are the property of their respective owners. Any unauthorized use or disclosure is strictly prohibited. The entities noted herein may pursue legal action if the unauthorized use results in any defamation and/or reputational risk to the entities noted herein and research published under the Bernstein and Autonomous brands.

全球储能电动革命分化——哪些电池制造商在电动汽车领域的布局最佳

BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE

INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS

VALUATION COMPS TABLE

DETAILS

MARKET SHARE ACROSS REGIONS: CHINESE ARE WINNING IN EUROPE….

PARTNERSHIP WITH OEM’S

WHICH OEM IS GROWING THE FASTEST?

2025 OUTLOOK: SK ON, BYD AND CATL TO LEAD THE GROWTH

FIVE-YEAR OUTLOOK FOR GROWTH – BETTER FOR KOREANS?

I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES

VALUATION METHODOLOGY

RISKS

RATINGS DEFINITIONS, BENCHMARKS AND DISTRIBUTION

Bernstein brand

Autonomous brand

Horizon and classification

PRICE CHARTS/ RATINGS AND PRICE TARGET HISTORY

CONFLICTS OF INTEREST

CERTIFICATION

II. ADDITIONAL GLOBAL CONFLICT DISCLOSURES

III. OTHER IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND DISCLOSURES

LEGAL

研报原文